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Technology Stocks : Preview Travel (PTVL) ---- Via...Excite & AOL
PTVL 1.3900.0%Jan 21 4:00 PM EST
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To: RDH who wrote (287)6/1/1998 1:40:00 PM
From: RDH  Read Replies (1) of 728
 
Kip,

I don't know whether this low volume is a good sign or bad. I don't much like this low volume when there is so much short interest, for it poses a risk if good news comes out.

On the other hand, with the stock going down and the volume this low, it is an indication that there is not much interest to buy this stock. It would be my guess that at least half of the volume today, is people covering shorts for a profit. Part of the sellers are people who are getting frustrated with their long position and part of the selling is caused by new short positions.

The good news for shorts is that everything seems to be going right for PTVL and yet people are evidently realizing that even if all goes perfect, PTVL will not generate enough revenue to justify their share price. They will be losing money for at least two more years (with all the deals they have made) and when their growth rate slows down and they are still not turning out a profit it will probably bring the stock price down a lot.

I probably won't hold until then, but I do need to have some shorts to balance out my longs and the only other short I can think of that is as good than PTVL is perhaps TSS or maybe some of the stocks I am long :) . But I still think PTVL is the one of the best places to put short money in the short term, since even if they quadruple their revenue for the next two years, it is not enough to justify this current market cap. Also, it's comforting to know that each of these coming quarters that they lose money will take a chunk off their book value and perhaps even provoke another secondary offering

Welcome any bearish or bullish thoughts on PTVL.

- RDH.
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