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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 252.25

+0.9%

Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: akidron who wrote (19806)	6/1/1998 3:19:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (1) of 70976

adidron, and threaders, It looks like the Semi's are following the same cycle as they followed in July 1996 when the Sector hit the Dorsey Wright its low Bull percentile of 12 % level with AMAT hitting it low price of $21 5/8 at that same time with an IBD AMAT relative strength of 10%. AMAT dropped from it previous high of $60 to the $21 5/8 for an approximate 64% drop before reversing back up to set a new high of $108 high presplit ($54 post split). If it drops a similar 64% off its recent $54 high we could see approximately $19.50 AMAT price. Today, we broke and equalled another DW double bottom spread at $30. The next double spread is at $27.00 followed by the previous DW low set this year at $26. I am keeping my power dry until I see AMAT's DW reversal back up. For those who bought in the $30's or higher the upside benefit of AMAT far exceeds the downside risk when you look at the past. However, it does require iron clad emotions. Naturally, the above is only my opinions and the data which I have reviewed from the Dorsey Wright site. Readers are reminded the old saving, "caveat emptor (buyer/reader beware)." Paul V.

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