Carbon >>> Diamond
Since WWDC I've been thinking about a possibility in Apple's OS strategy which I nicknamed Diamond. Essentially it's the possibility of porting MacOS X and specifically Carbon to run on X86. It's just speculation at this point but if true the implication is earth shattering. Over the last two weeks I've discussed the idea with e.b. and others on aapltalk but didn't want to bring it out in the open for a number of reasons. However MacOSRumor is now reporting this rumor and making it public...so I thought I'll post an earlier letter that I wrote to a number of knowledgeable people in the Mac industry. Later this week David Every of Mackido and I will co-write an article explaining the idea in more detail.
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After looking at a software migration diagram for MacOS X macevolution.com for the last two weeks I've been pondering about an interesting possibility for Apple's OS strategy. o I'd like to hear your thoughts as to whether such a plan is possible or not. Thanks in advance for your inputs...
Currently the main purpose of Carbon is to provide an easy path for developers to update their apps and tap into the modern features of MacOS X. However, the removal of dependencies from some legacy API also means that Carbon and MacOS X are far less dependent on the Mac hardware. This presents an interesting opportunity. While Apple maintains its official position that only applications developed via YellowBox API would be easily portable across platforms, I think technically it should be possible for Apple to make Carbon apps portable as well.
If Apple port MacOS X to PC and provide full support of Mac API, essential libraries, all a developer may need to do is simply take their Carbon compliant apps, recompile it with a new compiler and have it run on PCs MacOS X. Obviously this would require a lot of work on Apple's part but some of the porting of Mac API and library must have already been done for PC version of YellowBox and QT.
Once most developers have updated their apps to Carbon ...say 6 months from now, Jobs may come out and declare to Mac developers."Guess what? We have this compiler for you, and all you need to do is recompile your Carbon apps and it'll run on PCs. We've already ported the Mac OS, all the APIs and libraries to run on X86." This would essentially be a full assault on Windows. Both Apple and Mac developers would have a lot to gain from this. It would suddenly open up 90+% of the hardware market to Mac developers essentially without requiring them doing any work. Apple would be able to sell MacOS X into the existing PC market. PC clone makers would probably be very supportive of this as well... The only loser is probably MSFT.
I used to roll my eyeballs every time I hear rumors of Apple developing MacOS running on PC or Microsoft porting Windows to run on the Mac....etc. Those rumors simply didn't make any sense because Mac apps are heavily dependent on the Mac API and the Mac API is tied to the Mac hardware. Thus even if Apple decides to port the Mac OS to run on PCs (i.e. StarTrek project), unless Mac developers rewrite their apps there would be no applications to run on the new. In this case however, IF Carbon apps were portable, both applications and the OS would be available nearly the same time. The combination of MacOS and Mac apps running on PCs may be just the right weapons for Apple to take over the PC world! Or at least reclaim a big chunk of it.
If this is indeed part of Apple's strategy, it might be carried out in several stages as follows.
Stage 1. Strengthen the Mac hardware market by marketing on the superiority of PowerPC, G3, WallStreet and iMac. Keep the PC side OS plan under tight wrap. (Don't want to people to think that Apple has no faith in Mac hardware platform and jeopardize the marketing success of G3 WallStreet and iMac. Don't want to commit to supporting Carbon apps on PC until the MacOS for PC is nearly finished)
Stage 2. Strengthen Mac software platform by marketing on the new capabilities made possible by MacOS X and Carbon apps.
Stage 3. Announce Mac OS X and Mac apps for PCs and infiltrate the PC market. This will allow PC users to gain exposure to the superior user experience of Mac OS.
Stage 4. Attract PC users who now have a better understanding of MacOS to buy Mac hardware by leveraging the superior design and performance (G4, AltiVec..etc) of Mac hardware.
Of course, none of this speculation matters much unless it IS possible to port MacOS to PC and make Carbon apps portable as well. I had a friend ask an Apple engineers at WWDC whether MacOS X can be ported to PCs. His answer was that it would be possible but it won't be a trivial task. Obviously such an undertaking would take a lot of engineering effort, but technically not an impossible task. Since the entire OS would be reconstructed on top of Mach kernel (which already runs on X86 in various forms anyway) the main difficulty seems to be the support of various PC hardware and peripherals.
What do you think? Any possibility that Carbon might turn into Diamond... or am I just dreaming?
Best regards,
Eric
PS. Since this is purely speculation on my part, please keep this private so as to not stir up another wave of rumors. Thanks in advance for your thoughts on the subject. |
