Larry, because we are rapidly approaching the low set last December, where I felt (and posted) that an intermediate buy is at hand. There are few additional reasons. INTC is getting close to its own low, so is the SOX. The Tick has become one sidedly negative, in my prior experience a turn occurs within two days of such an event (not a bull just a DCB). I can get in with less than a 10% stop loss, a rarity. Finally, the last time I saw 16 red candles was last Chanuka, and only because I had two sets lit simultaneously.
The down side, of course, is that we can get a third gap down before any gap closing, but observing such a statistical oddity is worth putting 10% on the betting line. My target is about 25 (an outside chance of a challenge of 28 if the next rally has any durability and preceded with two gap up?), thus I am betting $.75 vs $2.5, not a bad bet. I bet on MU rarely. Let the games start.
I realize that HAL does not take these extraneous factors into account (just as it did not take two gaps down as a sign of of a major bearish event), but when taking all these parameters into account, and the possibility that some crazy analyst will take the increasing news of DRAM facilities closing (somehow they miss the fact that these are replaced with higher density devices, but who counts?), is going to upgrade the stock as it approaches 22, put the odds of my being right at 60% (Larry do not ask how I got this 60% it is a turnip proprietary program <G>).
Zeev |
