Message from jay silberman on Nov 19 1996 10:19PM EST
Richard,
Any ideas on what's causing the decline - or, is it simply a matter of what goes up...?
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FDA advisory committee meets tomorrow to consider delavirdine, the second of the NNRTIs. Add the results of the combined norvir/saquinavir trial, and it's just stressed out shareholders who have ridden it straight up from 30.
When I look at _every_ intraday chart during this mini-retreat, I see selling that is met with interest. It looks to me that knowledgeable speculators are stepping in, that the issue is being placed into hands with patience. After every run in a biotech, the less-sophisticated investors are shaken out. Four out of five times, they also look good, long-term. :-) However, it should be obvious that AGPH, Peter Johnson et al., have guts to spare and a plausible business plan. It is VERY difficult to turn your back on the potential that, by Spring '98, they might be looking for ways to spend all the money rolling in. For those who have not watched biotech management for the last 10 years, it is hard to over-praise AGPH's management. The thing that I've always liked about them is their low-key, no-hype, steady progress at the bench and attention to tox/pharm and clinical/regulatory. As the approach to market for Viracept nears, they have stepped up the hype, but, holding true to their history, it seems to have been devoid of stuff that can't be achieved. Management in biotech just doesn't get much better than this.
Again, you'll always get a truthful view from Donna in IR. If you get nervous about Viracept, ask about the cancer pipeline; that'll calm you down. Hold your breath, as it's going to be a big fight.
Rick |
