No, I am still out of Intel, although I put most of my money back into the market, in two mutual funds (BIGRX and VIGRX, if anyone cares), and I have taken a small loss in these (much less than if I'd stayed in INTC). My wife, however, still has a significant INTC position.
My views are that we are not all that near the bottom yet. I said all along, I was sure we'd see 60's, although when it was in the mid 80's only two weeks ago I had real doubts (my feelings were "why is it doing this", but still it was 10 pts. higher than it had been when I got out in the 70's). My feeling now is that low 60's are almost certain, and I think 50's, even 40's, are possible. I'm staying out of Intc for the time being, and may get out of the market all together for a while. Ultimately, my plans are to buy INTC leaps well before the Merced introduction, I was thinking maybe 3rd quarter this year, but now that is off until next year at least.
My big concern is that Intel is losing serious market share in the desktop PC business. If you go into Best Buy, more than half of the systems they have on the shelves are K-6's. More than half of the machines I see advertised in the newspaper are K-6's also. I don't think that Intel has lost their overall leadership, but I do think that we are still headed further down, I do not believe that we have seen the bottom, and indeed it may be surprisingly lower (I don't rule out 40's, although I think that there is a 50% chance that 60 will not be breached).
Good news, although I think that there will be some nominal action for appearances sake, I don't see anything truly significant coming out of the anti-trust probe.
Victoria, what is your take ?
Barry Watzman |
