I have received numerous e-mails,i-mails, phone calls, some inviting me to a private lynching, some questioning my heritage, and most just wishing they had never heard of me.
As some of you know I was on vacation from May 1 to May 22nd, and really went away hoping and expecting CCSI to have the deal inked. No one is more frustrated or dissapointed than I am.
I do not do this as a hobby, I do this for a living. Unfortunately I have to live by my wits, and at this point am at my wits end.
I would like to bore most of you with some history, and then bring things up to date according to my due diligence.
I was involved with CCSI through all the trials and tribulations of the FDA filing, and the unseemingly endless delays, and extensions of the time expectancy. I felt at that time that it would be done much quicker, but I was fortunate to stay in touch with Darby, and she helped me through that difficult time period. She was unwavering in her belief and determination that she would be successful, and she was. At that time I had never been up close and personal with a FDA procedure, and hope never to do it again, but I learned her determination and her ability to cope and get things done when she said she was going to do so.
There really is a method to my madness. As some of you have posted, who have spoken to Darby over the last few weeks, she has stated that we will have a deal, and she was very upbeat about it, and not to worry about the deal. I am a very large gambler, and I make large bets, in the case of CCSI I personally own hundreds of thousands of shares. I am responsible for well over 3 million shares that I have personally bought for people over the last 26 months. Many if not all of those owners monitor this board on a daily basis, and know from whence I speak.
Ok, Skippy, so what, get to the point, when is the goddamned deal??
1. I do not own CCSI for "the deal", if I did I wouldnt own my current size. I own it for what the deal represents. CREDIBILITY!! Initially, the FDA gave CCSI its first recognition. Now "the deal" will kiss it on the forehead, and make all but the shorts realize that we have an emerging technology, that not is only applicable in the case of Bilirubin, but once this is out of the way, then we can focus on dentistry, the really big market, and then on the cosmetic industry, where we will not be dealing with international problems, tariffs, et al.
2. This board has deteriorated into a name calling, your mother,your father, and all kinds of junk. In the real world we have not had any fundamentals to discuss for a long time, and that is frustrating.
3. My agenda is well known. But try and believe what I am telling you, I do not own it for the deal. It is the stepping stone to a real company, and hopefully a huge investment down the road.
4. Look at what Darby has done in the last 6 months. Hired Fred Frank, one of the chief rainmakers in Wall Street.this man is really a mover and shaker, and he is one of the best in this area.. Hired Hill & Knowlton, one of the top PR firms in the world. Hired BDO Seidman to assist the company as it begins an international business. These steps were not taken lightly by either CCSI or either of these 3 groups, both sides did their own due diligence before committing to the task at hand. No firm just walks up to these 3 and says let's do business. The real world just doesn't work that way.
5. The New Orleans convention was a smash hit for CCSI. They stood the pediatric community on its ear. I have had the opportunity to speak to dozens of attendees, who all give CCSI high marks. I might also add, many orders.
6 .As I write this some of the naysayers on the market size are going back to the drawing board and reviewing their thoughts. I believe that the worldwide market for known bilirubin tests is approximately 45,000,000 tests per year. The average price for these tests varies, as only one-third are done in the United States, where we know the average price is around $22, some as high as $38. In pediatricians offices it may even be higher, but the point is we are talking about obtaining a small percentage the first year, say 8-10%, double that the 2nd year, and higher the 3rd year. Make an assumption on the average price our partnership might obtain, somewhere around 50% of the current prices, and you have a very interesting earnings model.
7. If in fact, our partner to be is a world class distributor, we are going to the big leagues. If this is a multi year deal, then we are going to have a highly visible earnings model from which to base our investment judgement.
8. In many of my conversations with Darby since the beginning she has told me that the other 2 markets, dentistry and cosmetics was where the future of CCSI was. If you believe that, why get so uptight on "the deal", sit back, close your eyes, don't hock yourself on margin (YET), and believe in her and what she is going to deliver in the near future.
9. Many of you have said if we don't get news soon we are out of here. Let me bore you with a TRUE story, and some of you may remember this. I was one of the early poster on TRPO, now TAVA, I was probably one of the largest holders back when.. The TPRO board got to be a piece of junk the way this board is getting, and I said so, and was flamed, sworn at, told to stick it, etc.... I told the board they were crazy, and they should believe what management was saying, and I knew the management. I kept listening to the junk on the boards, left the boards, listened to all the shorts, took my eye off the ball, and said I will show them, and sold a huge position, and then watched it go up 150% 2 months later. The moral is HAVE THE COURAGE OF YOUR CONVICTIONS, DO YOUR OWN DD, DONT CHOKE ON WHAT YOU OWN, YOU DO NOT MAKE BIG MONEY WITHOUT TAKING CHANCES, AND THIS IS GOING TO BE ONE OF YOUR BEST CHANCES IN YOUR INVESTING CAREER. DON'T BE AN ODD-LOTTER LIKE I WAS IN TPRO(TAVA), SIT TIGHT, SANTA AND THE REINDEERS ARE LOADING THE SLEIGH.
10. One last point. Go back over the reasons you bought CCSI in the first place. Has any of that changed? Investing is not a science, it is an art, and you will not always be right on your timing, but you want to be right on your facts, and those haven't changed in this story, so try and be a little more patient. You will have a deal, you will have a deal.
I |
