SSPARSONS contribution:
Steve alias SSPARSONS
A lot of people have sent me questions about ARET asking if now is a good time to
jump in and buy the stock. Personally, I like the direction I am seeing from the company
at this time.
One positive sign is the Volume that the stock has registered in the last several sessions
since the bonanza of close to 40 million shares almost two weeks ago:
05/21/98 39,120,100
05/22/98 14,800,400
05/26/98 7,153,600
05/27/98 2,207,500
05/28/98 3,143,000
05/29/98 2,554,900
06/01/98 4,451,800
To me, the Volume is a good indicator that people are interested in the company and
over the past couple weeks, ARET's presence in the market place gives me confidence
that the company is not being ignored. Today's volume was nice...consider that the
average volume prior to the big run up on 5-21 was only about 750,000+ per day.
I have been holding this stock since November and have seen some interesting patterns.
It was just barely breathing over 1 penny a couple weeks ago but prior to that, it was
trading actively between .02 and .03 for quite a while in anticipation of news. The
company has convinced me that they are going to continue to address shareholders and
interested parties of their intentions through news releases and through my recent
discussion with them.
It is true that they are not using BW but the news is filtering through (for example on
Bloomberg) and the updates seem to be hitting on a bi-weekly basis. The CEO and his
associates are not sitting around . It is obvious that they are working diligently to bring in
more business and to get the word out that they are serious about doing business on a
variety of projects. As Joseph mentioned in my call last week, I told him, "It appears
that you guys have your act together" with which he commented arrogantly, "We have
always had our act together". I like that kind of confidence in a PR man.
Personally, I think it is exciting to own a stock that just came out of bankruptcy and has
already secured 3 contracts. Don't forget that they have a legitimate shot at 5 more!
Whether you buy the stock now or you wait expecting that it drops further is up to you
but I think if you do buy this and put it away, you could be pleasently surprised.
My gut feeling tells me that if management continues to work hard and secure the
projects and relay the information to the investing public, we are going to be OK. I also
like the fact that we have not approached Summer yet and construction season is
starting to heat up. This is a cyclical business. I look for the stock to pop up during the
Summer and the Fall and to decline in the Winter simply based on lack of news
coverage / events. Basically, that is what happened in January and February. Notice the
increase in activity in terms of news releases in March, April and May.
A little hype with a stock is good at times but the poster on SI that said ARET was
going to hit a buck in two weeks is just ignorant. However, I can see other penny
pinchers keeping a close eye on this one if more good news continues to be released. If
good news follows on a frequent basis, I can't see this being at 3 cents too much longer.
A few more contractual victories could give this stock a significant boost in the range of
8-10 cents. For practical purposes, I think we have a chance of ARET landing in that
range sometime this summer if things continue to progress. I know a lot of old timers out
there probably think this is hogwash but even the grizzled old veterans of the KLHE
days have to admit that this is the best the company has looked in a long time. I feel that
the only way to go from here is up but it will certainly not happen in two weeks.
Steve alias SSPARSONS
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I'll ad regarding the cyclical issue - That getting business in Mexico might bounce for
working all year (expecting that the climate allows so).
Kr
Jens |
