In comparing the BTB #'s in 1996 with the prices we see that the funds started loading up with AMAT the last of July when the stock was at 21 5/8 but the BTB # was at 0.76. It's average BTB since 1991 was 1.0285 for the month of July. However, in 1996 during Aug. the BTB was 0.71, aver. at 1.01 with the price range from 23-$27. In Sept.the BTB was
0.70, aver. at 0.96857 and price range from $26-27. In Oct. the BTB was 0.78, aver 1.01 and price range from $26-$30. Then in Nov. the BTB was at 0.90, aver 1.03 and price range from $27-40. By Dec the BTB had moved to 1.01 but the price range stated in the range of 35-$40. But by Jan the BTB had gone to 1.08, then Feb. 1.07 at a price range $41-55. It looks like we will have to wait to about November before we get back to the the $40 range.
With the conversions to the 12 in wafers, copper etching, etc. do we
believe that the SEMI will hit the high BTB #'s it hit during the early months in 1995 when it hit BTB # of 1.32 in Jan., 1.41 in Feb. and 1.30 BTB in March. If so we could really have a tremendous jump in prices this next up cycle especially since we will be up against extremely low # the year before (1998). This also is reinforced due to the 3rd year of the Presidential cycle, with a median of 25%, the highest of the 4 year of a Presidential cycle. By the way the median for the 4th year of the Presidential cycle is at 16%, but we have the Y2K problem bearing down on us.
Has AMAT taken the steps to correct the Y2K problem internally and in
the manufacturing of it's products?
During the 1st and 2nd years of the the median range was in the 5-4%
area.
If the Funds follow there previous trends then the last of July appears to be the price bottom for AMAT even though the BTB #'s may go lower. I agree with others on this site that it looks to me that the lows will be in the low $20's. Then, I believe that the Big Funds will jump in.
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Paul |
