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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 159.59

-3.9%

Nov 20 3:59 PM EST

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To: tero kuittinen who wrote (10849)	6/2/1998 9:51:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) of 152472

Tero, just reviewing that post again, much of what you say is true, but underlying it all is the future prospects for cdmaOne versus GSM. There is nobody saying GSM is the 3G system. All agree that it is just a transitory technology to be followed by 3G CDMA, of either an Ericsson or cdmaOne variety. So at some stage, CDMA will exceed GSM. The question is when. You also tend to belabor Korea too much. It is small in the world. China is not all GSM - they are also keen on cdmaOne. Yes, Nokia has done a brilliant job and both Nokia and Ericsson have enjoyed a great record until now. Postmortems are fine by me! My investments are great. I predicted a $53 to $83 trading range for Qualcomm about 10 months ago. That was about right too. But a postmortem is premature when cdmaOne is barely out of the starting gates. It has been just over 2 years since the first commercial systems started. Growth has been good. Technology developments continue apace and it seems likely that cdmaOne will be accepted as the logical basis for wideband cdma wireless telephony. This rule you gave: "There's a rule in high tech businesses in general that states that only companies with big volumes can be truly successful." It can't be true. Or there would never be a new company in high tech businesses. Compaq, Apple, Microsoft, Qualcomm, all started with small volumes. To be a big company, of course there needs to be a big market and eventually big volumes. Qualcomm is aiming at one of the biggest volumes the world has ever seen. cdmaOne will be ubiquitous. Not just in phones. Mqurice

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