Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 156.86

-2.8%

10:38 AM EST

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To: Paul Dieterich who wrote (5641)	6/2/1998 10:21:00 PM
From: Jess Beltz	Read Replies (4) of 10921

I would like to offer one more thought on why it might be prudent to wait a bit before jumping in to semi equipment stocks full bore. Many believe that history repeats itself and history is indicating that we are about (or at) the bottom in a down cycle and so the time is now (or about now) to jump in. I am not sure that history will repeat itself, particularly with respect to semi equipment stocks and the center of profitability being the next generation of chips to be produced by those who survive this downturn. Infrastructure makes a very interesting point here. I know I cannot quote them, but I do believe I am at liberty to discuss my opinion of some of what they say. I agree with them that the killer application of the moment is the Internet. I think few would deny that. The current generation of microprocessors can handle internet usage just fine. For those who are interested in making money through the mass consumption of computer technology, I don't see a flood of users to the high end of the microprocessor power curve. Where the mass market money will go is in the direction of easy access to the web. The bottleneck there is bandwidth, and the technology that solves the problem of increasing bandwidth capability to the home market is where the money will be made. What then of semiconductor equipment companies? I think Wall Street doesn't really know what to think about them right now. I think the Street may also be thinking that the Market (in general) will head south in the coming months on the heels of downward earnings revisions of many companies, and so Wall Street may be a bit gunshy of jumping into the semi market right now. That is, what appears to be compelling valuation in a historical sense may not be entirely relevant at the present moment. Thoughts and discussion?? jess.

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