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Technology Stocks : Ampex Corporation (AEXCA)
AMPX 11.26-3.9%1:10 PM EST
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To: Swamp Fox who wrote (2776)6/3/1998 12:42:00 AM
From: Ed Perry  Read Replies (1) of 17679
 
Review the long term charts for a better perspective.

Actually price action of the last few months looks quite good.
These wedges or horizontal patterns are most appropriate at current
relative price levels. If the volume continues quiet or even becomes
more quiet still over the next few weeks then the pattern is almost
perfect.

In fact these points of analysis are straight from the writings of
R W Schabacker stated about 1937. He went on to say that this pattern
is one of low risk high return but that it requires inordinate patience.

Ted Warren was another luminary specializing in long term patterns.
He required low volume during the final basing period. We may get this yet.
Ampex is quietly passing from the unloved and unwanted and into the shadows.

However, the analysis must be brought up to date. In looking at a six year
span of daily data I note the speed at which AXC began completing
its patterns starting about early 1985. Whether this increase in
speed is indicative of the security, the tech sector or the overall
bull market I do not know. But, I would not be surprised to see the
coming events to unfold in an unexpected rapid fashion.

Finally, I threw my Elliott Analysis tool at AXC and after 45 minutes
of churning on a AMD K6 233 with 96MB SDRAM the wave results are in.
As had been first noted last December, we are in the 5th wave of a
C correction and the wave is targeting completion at the price range
of 1 3/4 to 2 in about 3 to 4 weeks.

So, to wrap it up, what this stew points to as a strong possibility is

1) Continued drift on low volume for several weeks with the possibility of a locals
bear raid gunning for sell stops bunched up below the price of 2.

2) A breakout of a trading range bounded roughly between 2 1/4 and
3 1/4. Around this level volume could be substantial but with
not much price movement (see 1995).

3) A stair step (or zig-zag) pattern as revenues increase and
financial recovery unfolds. Here Ampex would have left the shadows
and would be picking up attention and become wanted and loved
once again.

Well, all in all it looks quite good. I think that longs are in some
pretty class..ic company in anticipating better times.

Good luck and patience to all
Ed Perry
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