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Pastimes : Soccer World Cup MLS Euro Champions League etc
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To: X Y Zebra who wrote (37)6/3/1998 6:13:00 AM
From: EPS  Read Replies (2) of 5130
 
Zebra,

OK, fine you asked for it!

Say that x is the average price of TBR during the games. Based on econometrics the chances of Brazil winning this thing are

W = (x-120)*10 %

So look for TBR @ 130 or more for Brazil to win without Romario. Of course if x is smaller than 120 forget Brazil.. Now if W <100 then the chances of France and Argentina become bigger than zero. Germany could also be there. The exact probabilities for this to happen I have also computed but the margin of error is such that the chances of these teams are statistically undistinguishable in my model..

So I'll say that the following teams, ordered alphabetically, have the best chances of becoming the top 4 teams in the world:

Argentina, Brazil, France, and Germany.

Of interest to investors is that the process is IMHO (maybe not so H now that I read what I wrote but at any rate take all this with a grain of salt (kosher if possible)) reversible! So that if you are sure that Brazil will win this thing you can make a lot of money. Indeed, if you believe in Brazil, and trust my analysis, you could buy TBR today @ 110 for a profit > 20 at the end of the championship. That is a whopping return specially if you buy this for your margin account.

Now how is that for a prediction?

Other readers may want to make similar predictions.........

Regards

Victor
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