Pete, I love the Bix and Xal for puts, especially when they are running as they are today. However, I flatter myself that I can pick bank stocks (I know I can't discern among airline stocks), so I prefer Chase, Citi, Wells Fargo, etc to the index right now.
It is true that you don't have to buy an Intel chip and you do have to buy a MSFT operating system. However, that doesn't make up for the fact that MSFT is growing at 20% with the rate falling and selling for over 50 times eps. With pc demand lousy and supply everywhere, I believe that MSFT's pricing power (especially with Janet "From Another Planet" Reno watching) is very low right now. The delay of Merced is not going to spur Win 98 sales. If you need a new computer, you will probably buy Win 98. But there is nothing there to require you to throw out the old and bring in the new. I think that is true even with Merced in place, but it is certainly true without it.
I was buying drug stocks back during the Bilary Health Care Bill that was going to put them out of business. Pfizer was selling for a less than market multiple. At its current 59 times eps, it is rich even compared to the bloated market levels. Any bad news could send these things tumbling, though I expected the Viagra deaths to have more impact. The key would be new Medicare reimbursement schedules or higher interest rates. I think we get both some time this year.
MB |
