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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ)
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To: DaiS who wrote (9032)6/3/1998 5:19:00 PM
From: VLAD  Read Replies (2) of 23519
 
It seems to me that the shorters have timing and the media slanted to their favor. I noticed a selling spree and price drop today each time CNBC talked about Vivus. CNBC's reporting had nothing positive to say about Vivus or MUSE. They mention that the Pain Webber Anal_yst gave a -.45 estimate for Q2 yesterday. They mention how bad the script numbers are. They show how bad the chart appears. But little else is said. They don't mention that it has only been about a month since Viagra's release and we still can not judge the effects of Viagra until a couple more months have passed. The Genesis Merchant Analyst obviously didn't do his homework since he could have read the abstracts months ago. Also no mention of how slanted the antiMUSE studies were. This guy said today that after attending the conference, he felt that there was not "overwhelming support" for MUSE and said it was a niche product. Well we always knew that MUSE was not a perfect product and that not all urologists were in love with it nor did we think that it was for everyone.

The timing of this meeting could not have been worse for Vivus since it coincides with the release of Viagra and thus the lower scripts and earnings effect.

Folks, I have tried my best to view MUSE and the ED situation from as logical view as possible. I never thought that the product was perfect and I knew that the management of the company did not know how to run a smooth ship.

Based on the one sided slanted media and poor short term timing of the meeting during the release of Viagra, it is no wonder that the
stock price is now way below fair value. The shorts have done a wonderful job in dirrecting the flock of investor sheep in their direction. Just shout wolf and watch the panic stampede begin.

I have made all the points I have felt relevent over the last 6 months. Mass hype and histeria rules over a calm analysis of the "whole picture". I believe that in the long term Vivus and MUSE will do well and carve their just share of the ED pie. Unfortunately, todays investors are more concerned about the very short term and thus Vivus is beaten down to a price that can be deemed laughable at best. Vivus stock was prematurely overbought to the up side and now is prematurely over sold to the down side. I guess my lesson in this stock market game is that short term matters most and perception rules over fact.

Another "major" buy decision for myself on Vivus was the international acceptance of MUSE. Seems like England embrases MUSE and it has become popular in a very short time span. But of course you won't here anything positive like this on the CNBC propaganda machine.

Take the baton TA, I will now become a "lurker".

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