re: " I do not see how these issues can take out their Dec. lows."
Exactly, Brian. You can't see it. You've been very consistent, and very wrong, for the last 8 months. I've read a lot of your posts, and frankly, you don't seem to be able to learn from your mistakes. No matter what the news, you are optimistic. You ignore/minimise/rationalise all bad news, and magnify every scrap of good news. You are not flexible. Everyone makes mistakes. I totally missed the downturn last fall, and was in denial for a prolonged period. But the key is to brutally self-criticise, and thereby learn from those mistakes, so they don't become a pattern. So far this year, I've been long, I've been short, I've been confused and uncertain, and I'm currently on the sidelines. But I've made a lot of money this year investing in the semi-equips. I don't think you have, if you've followed your own advise. Please don't take this as a flame. I'm posting this, because about 50 times this year I've read your post and thought, "there he goes again, jumping off a cliff with a blindfold on, it's going to hurt." And you're still doing it. Well, today, INTC followed KLAC, taking out it's support line. KLIC will be next, and then the rest. And you don't see how.
Here is an exercise for you, if you have the courage:
1. Print out the chart of AMAT's price for the last year.
2. Circle each market top and false rally, about a dozen of them.
3. Re-read what you were posting at the time.
4. Ask yourself: "what was wrong with my assumptions, logic, or facts? What was I ignoring that turned out to be important? What was I focusing on that turned out to be unimportant?"
5. If you can't think of anything, keep thinking.
6. post your thoughts.
Again, please don't take this as an unfriendly attack. I think you will have better investing returns if you take it seriously. |
