Jacob,
You are correct in that I did not see the downturn coming. However, I am not going to become a bear ag=fter AMAT has fallen nearly 50% from it's highs. The assumption that AMAT will return to historical lows is mistaken IMO. We are currently at about 2.7X sales and the SOX is near a multi-year low. I do not profess to know where AMAT is going in the next week or the next month for that matter. However, AMAT trades in tandem with INTC, SOX etal, so I do not see AMAT heading much lower unless the SOX and the entire sector tanks. This statement somehow makes me a cheerleader. I am not. I am looking at the facts and comparing AMAT to others in the group. With the market share AMAT has won in CMP and a number of other areas, I do not think we will be breaking our Dec. lows. Take it FWIW.
Re:You are not flexible
and
But I've made a lot of money this year investing in the semi-equips. I don't think you have,
Believe it or not, I do adhere to an investing strategy. I bought many of the equips in 96 when AMAT was in the low 20's. Since '96, AMAT has been ~60% of my portfolio($11/sh). I am by nature a buy-and-hold investor. This most recent downturn has me rethinking that strategy, but I still make $$ and am not making my broker or my mean old Uncle Sam rich.. Unlike many on the SI threads, I do not try to time the market, holding out for a PSR of 1 but nothing more. There is GREED on the downside as well as the up and many people holding out will miss out. Why don't we compare performance say 16 months from now?
BTW, at least I have been consistent in my mistakes and admission of them;-)
BK |
