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Technology Stocks : Stock Swap
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To: Andrew Vance who wrote (14278)6/3/1998 6:47:00 PM
From: Andrew Vance  Read Replies (1) of 17305
 
*AV*--Made a mistake on the list and just caught it. ASMLF was accidentally omitted via eye-hand coordination on a scrap piece of paper. I couldn'r figure out how UTEK made the list since, as you will see, it should be a slight laggard. As restitution, I will also highlight why some companies did not make the list.

TOP 5 IN ORDER

1. CYMI
2. ASYT
3. KLAC
4. AMAT
5. NVLS

If anything cash were left over, I would move to the second tier and consider:

6. ASMLF
7. PAIR
8. IDTI
9. INTC
10. ATMI

* UTEK-left off the list since I think it will lag the other equipment manufacturers by at least 1 quarter. Its Disk Drive business has not recovered yet and the Ultrabeam is moving along slowly.

* PRIA-left off because it will probably be a takeover candidate at little to no premium and will be acquired for stock.

* MTSN-AGAI-SUBM-GSNX-CFMT-etal. are too small and play in too small a niche to amount to anything significant. As the sector worsens, this may drop low enough that they will try to align themselves with some bigger companies just to survive. They will not come out of this doenturn in good shape on their own. The may very well be on the brink of extinction without some type of infusion by some bigger entity when it comes to the 300mm implementation.

Andrew

Again-there is a healthy gap between #5 and #6 on the above list. I think you will see a great deal of see-saw activity on all these stocks. The smart money would start following some of these companies and play them for 10-15% swings until the industry turns around.
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