Dan --
Another with some good news in among the rest:
newsbytes.com
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Disappointing Semiconductor Sales In 1998 - Forecast
<Picture>****Disappointing Semiconductor Sales In 1998 - Forecast 06/03/98 SAN JOSE, CALIFORNIA, U.S.A., 1998 JUN 3 (NB) -- By Craig Menefee, Newsbytes. An across-the-board drop in chip sales during the first quarter has led the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) to predict that year-end 1998 chip sales will be 1.8 percent lower than in 1997. The good news, says SIA, is that sales should pick up steadily in the second half of 1998 and lead the industry into a very healthy growth period from 1999 through 2001.
The SIA issued its forecast Wednesday afternoon, as the group released it's official Midyear Forecast after the stock market closed in New York.
Newsbytes notes that, in a year when PC demand, like the global economy, seems to have hit the doldrums, a 1.8 percent decline may seem modest. However, as recently as May 7 the SIA declared, "Even the lowest year-end estimate already released by some companies, 5 percent, would bring 1998 sales to approximately $145 billion -- a new all-time high."
The newly revised forecast for 1998 is a much less robust $134.6 billion.
Newsbytes notes the new prediction is consistent with earlier forecasts made by In-Stat and others, who forecast a flat 1998 sales total several weeks ago (Newsbytes, May 14, 1998).
SIA President George Scalise blamed the long-standing economic turbulence in Asia for having "crimped the expected expansion of global chip markets in 1998." But he pinned high hopes for resumed expansion in 1999 on the growth of Internet usage.
"With Internet use doubling every 100 days, and Internet commerce about to explode, we can already see the beginnings of the next growth cycle for semiconductors and consumer electronics," said Scalise. "At the same time, we are aware of the cyclical nature of the industry and the short-term impacts those cycles have on our long-term growth."
He said SIA now expects expansion to resume in 1999, as semiconductor growth rates return to their historical averages of about 17 percent.
Scalise said new growth will be driven by "more versatile microprocessors, digital signal processors, systems-on-a-chip, communications and networking devices, and the popularity of new consumer products" like digital cameras and digital video discs.
SIA said DRAM sales will lead the general 1998 retreat. After dropping 21.2 percent in 1997, DRAM sales will plummet another 26.6 percent in 1998, the forecast predicted. Of the $23.4 billion year-end sales figure, 40 percent will occur in the Americas. Growth will resume in 1999, the SIA said.
Microprocessor sales in 1998 will "only duplicate 1997," said SIA, mostly because of the growth in sub-$1,000 PC sales. The 1998 figure is forecast at $23.4 billion, with growth again expected to resume next year.
Digital signal processors (DSP) were an exception in this rather gray year, with revenues showing growth of 39.2 percent in 1998 to $3.9 billion, SIA said. The pace of growth will continue through the foreseeable future, to exceed $8.1 billion in DSP sales in 2001, according to the forecast.
Analog products also grew, with 1998 sales expected to increase 8.3 percent to $21.4 billion, the association said. On the other hand, the MOS (metal oxide semiconductor) memory market including DRAM chips will decline 17.5 percent. MOS logic sales also will decline in 1998, but at a more sedate 1.1 percent rate, SIA said.
In terms of geography, Asia Pacific is showing a 2.8 growth rate to $31 billion this year, following a 9.6 percent growth in 1997. Europe is showing the best single-year gains, with sales up 5 percent to $30.5 billion by year's end. In the Americas, sales will drop 4.1 percent to $43.9 billion, while sales in Japan will drop 9.2 percent to $29.1 billion, the forecast predicts. >>>> |
