Lack of volume, no buyers, and general skepticism
is making OE inactive just as you say. On balance volume is not looking positive, the A/D line is weak, the stochastic oscillator is still down, relative strength is down, and money flow average is down.
News events can be the only stimulus for OE at this point. I am afraid that we are near a price breakdown again unless something comes up. The short term bottom looks like 4 1/16th. The upper range is near 5.
Absent any startling news, I agree with Jim's reminder that we are in a long term situation that demands patience. The July 1999 accounting adjustment goal is my real orientation point. Meantime, we are stuck with rumor. The risk is also that such light volume means only that this tier of sellers has been just about exhausted. Any further price deterioration will bring a new batch of sellers. If anyone needs to protect their portfolio as a whole, they will start shaving the marginal percentage decliners (such as OE). In view of the increasingly fragile Dow Jones market environment, I expect to see continuing bond vs. equity divergence.
So the question for many of the uncertain OE holders is how they are going to feel not only with OE weakness but also with the Dow moving towards 8200 or so. Sell at 4.5 or 4.0? It can happen.
Wish the news were better, but that's what the price pattern looks like to me at the moment. |
