<<If this goes to zero, I eat cat food during my retirement. LOL>>
Cat food, tuna, there all the same anyway from what I hear. :~)
Actually, I'd rather have the loss in my taxable (I'd rather have a gain from ESST, but I don't want to dream too much :~) ), b/c someday by semi-equips will generate more than enough cap gain (or so I hope and/or delude myself) to cover up my ESS indiscretion. :~)
<<In the 10K, a couple interesting new products exiting from R&D were
described. If these sell profitably, then we could see improvement by
1999.>>
That key. I onlyy glanced at 10K, but for a turnaround, new products are going to one part of the equation - maybe the only part if we're lucky. Hopfully, this weekend I will catch up with my reading and get a chance to read in depth the 10k.
<<I'm not optimistic that market beating returns will be seen on any of the chipmakers before the Capacity glut is worked through. The
migration to 0.18 micron and opening new fabs is pushing that date
further and further out.>>
Well the market is about 6 months ahead of reality. So if Cu initiates a rebound generally along with Merced, by the second half of '99 we should be a bounce....especially if they are profitable or their new products excite the market (ok, I can wish upon a star can't I? :~) )
<<I'm probably the most bearish that I've ever been on the chip makers
(not the equipment makers yet). Is that a bullish sign? ;-)>>
That's usually my sign. When I start feeling the rest of the world moving bearish (including the fear side of my personality :~) ), I re-assess, and use the right side of my brain (the raional side, though my wife might call it the irrational side :~) )to determine whether we've hit bottom in the sector. I think we are almost there...by summer's end for sure....but leave me some wiggle room to change my mind.
Intel story today is a great example of fear run amok. H&Q says they will preannounce bad numbers, Intel says huh. Stock dives to 65ish. At this rate, Intel is starting to fall within my definition of a long term buy....not that it isn't for others (more rational, less risk takers), just that my criterion might be a bit different
<<Re ESST and LEAPs; I'd personally ignore both. ESST is 2nd tier and
will recover later than the leading Chip makers in each of its sectors, IMHO.>>
Interesting point. So, a LEAP going to '01 would be of interest to you. I would think by then we'd get a rebound - or heaven knows what happens to our friend Chan - but your point is well taken.
<<Biggest thing that it's got going for it is Fred and Annie seem to have much of their net worth tied up in ESST stock.>>
This is my sole source for inspiration. They have a stake and are increasing it as well. Nothing like feeling like a shareholder and a CEO at the same time....especially if you made your millions (atone point) with the ESST horse.
<<Unfortunately, I need to do my sell ESST/buy XXXX on the same day
or my US$ get converted to Cdn$ automatically at a cost of about 1%;
then another 1% to buy US$ when I eventually make the purchase. Another penalty associated with our RRSP laws.>>
I had forgotten that you were Canadian. And I thought our tax laws were screwy. :~) (I am assuming RRSP = taxes, but at this hour).
<<Good luck>>
Same too you. May we see better days with this puppy dog....SemiBull |
