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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 270.13-1.8%3:59 PM EST

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To: jtechkid who wrote (19874)6/4/1998 12:46:00 AM
From: akidron  Read Replies (1) of 70976
 
jtechkid... for once we totally disagree... Management is in deep doo doo --- it is trying to reign in its own cap-ex but committed itself to a $500 million expansion this year, in the second half of the last year, when it bought the mirage (thank god the market did otherwise I for one would be a great deal poorer). AMAT is currently pushing out its own cap-ex but we are at the point where declining revs, and increasing costs are going to bite big. I believe AMAT will make a loss in the 4th q, that the 50% of orders garnered in the last month of the previous Q will be very expensive this.... I expect AMAT to break 25 and hit 19 buy mid summer... and if the bubble pops there is no earthly reason why we shouldn't see 15 or even 13 --- u see the problem with this implosion is that the baby boomer billions are likely to pass AMAT by for a while... too unpredicatble to base a retirement on.... I must say that it seems incredible to me that a scenario you, BB, DD, and myself saw so clearly last year was such a surprise to JM... but I guess when you're micro managing the macro slips through the cracks... Also... my guess is that HK breaks before Japan.
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