TEXN: does anybody even bother to do the math any more? If what Doug posted on the research report is true, TEXN CAN ONLY PRODUCE 7,000 PT NIGHT SIGHTS PER MONTH. The company is not expecting to increase production for another 12 months, so these are the revenues you can expect for the year, not including the gripper and ship hull products which apparently have not yet brought in big bucks.
7,000 units x 12 months = 84,000 units
Wholesale price of units per TokyoMex = $48
So you should expect revenues = 84,000 x $48 = $4M
This is 33% less than TEXN's estimate of $6M in revenues in there March press release.
If cost can be assumed to be difference between revenue and earnings prediction in March press release (a stretch I know, but I have nothing better to go on), then costs per year approx $3.5M
Then earnings are $4M - $3.5M = $0.5M. (conservative)
EPS = 0.5M / 19M = 0.026 = 2.6 cents per share ASSUMING THERE IS NO DILUTION (a biggie!!)
Assuming stock trades at an EPS of 20 (conservative), then a lower limit for the stock is approximately 52 cents.
It is possible TEXN will do better than I've estimated, but based on Doug's information that manufacturing capacity is 7,000 units per month, I invite anyone to show me that the company will earn 0.13 per share. I find this to be a tad optimistic.
Irregardless, it is still a worth while play at current prices.
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