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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets
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To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (189)6/4/1998 12:12:00 PM
From: Chip McVickar  Read Replies (1) of 3536
 
Henry,

Here is an interesting article from Asahi Shimbun, 3 June 98
#reply-4698855

On first look this seems significant, but this has been continuing
off and on for a number of years. The question remains - when will the
weight of this 8 yr contraction produce another significant decline..?

I think the key here is in the bottom paragraphs.....
Will the 'Fiscal Structure Reform Law' be stronge enough to stimulate
the economy..? It is very possible that the Japanese are so scared
or better-yet protective of their savings that any new money from
tax breaks will only be put into savings vehicles. Not a stimulant.

The entire country has lived through and benefited from a remarkablly
long period of prosperity and growth....similar to ours after WW II.
After 8 years of decline and now Asian currency problems...the entire
population must wondering if the bottom is around the corner or about
to drop-out. Japan appears to be going sideways, at best for a good number
of years.(Similar perhaps to some of our protracted economic patterns)
I am beginning to feel that this stimulous package maybe more political
cover as the banking and financial sectors adjust themselves to greater
transparency and open-up to foreign investment structures. Hard for
the financial elite to digest and not neccessarily good for the longterm
prosperity of the country......especially in such a tightly structured
society.

If Japan stays flat for another 10 years this will be good for the
US dollar....keeping it and capital inflows stronge for the bonds.
A stable dollar would act as a buffer for the emerging ECU and allow
for a smooth transition while maintaining the bond and stockmarkets
for some further years. This new period of productivity gains and
economic environments could seemingly carry us and the world well into
the next Millennium. Much of what we have accomplished will be generally
shared within the world community. If the next President has the far
sighted views that are not protectionist....it may very well occur.

Nothing as yet would indicate that the US is in for an extended decline
of prosperity due to the turmoil internationally. It is very possible
we are in an emergent evoloution....which cannot be understood entirely
from past footprints. But will continue to transform us and the world.
Optimistic....perhaps....but, my tendency is to take this footpath and
see if it leeds-on-up to that mossy pass.
Chip
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