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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets
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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (193)6/4/1998 2:18:00 PM
From: Henry Volquardsen  Read Replies (1) of 3536
 
Chip,
Interesting post.

I saw an analyst on CNBC who was discussing Japan. One of the points he made is it takes a major industrialized nation about a decade to come to terms with a major fundamental economic problem and then actually do something about. Think about the post Viet Nam inflation problem in the US and how long it took to build the consensus the allowed Volcker to attack the problem. Think of how long politicians talked about S&Ls before before they actually did something. Same with the major economies post the great depression (that process is somewhat obscured by the onset of WWII). The point is Japan is beginning to approach that time period now. It will take a lot of time but there are signs that the Japanese are finally beginning to think about some of the real fundamental issues and it will take some time to address. The demographics of Japan will not help them but I suspect that 5 years from now we will recognize that Japan has turned the corner on this problem.

I agree that there is nothing on the horizon that indicates a decline in US prosperity due to international turmoil. We most always keep an eye out for trouble but I to am fairly optimistic for the long term, despite the inevitable corrections we will see along the way.

Henry
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