Good point. Are you assuming that future sales will be decrease?
VLAD:
I just deleted a huge response to you, filled with things like communist plots, Pfizer shills, illegal shorts, undercover payments to Reuters, phantom pills in development, and all the other reasons I would be nervous were I a VVUS long, which I aint.
Instead, I'd like to take a calm look at the facts:
Quarter 9803(1) 9712(4) 9709(3) 9706(2) 9703(1)
------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Revenue 27.5 32.9 39.1 33.5 32.8
Seq rev growth -16 -16 17 2 NA
Reads right to left. Sequential revenue decline of 16% each of the last 2 quarters, and only a complete fool would think this quarter is going to be better. I don't think there is any disagreement that revenue will be down again this quarter, is there?
Now, what happens the other 2 quarters? I believe it is your intention that VVUS will buck this trend and the selling will continue. That's why you're in the stock, that's cool. I do not have emotional ties to the stock, only my own beliefs and the anecdotal evidence from my wife, who is a pharmacist. She hasn't sold any MUSE in 4 months. Granted, she never sold much before then, either.
I hate the fact people have lost a lot of money here. I'm long PFE (I've never had a position in VVUS) and it may turn out I eventually lose money there myself, but for my own personal reasons I feel safe in that particular investment, despite its rich multiple.
I'm under water in VNTV, KEA and ATHM at the moment, and many of you would look at those stocks and say, "what the hell is he doing investing in that crap?" much the same as I know people say to you. To you I say, back up your investment. If you feel good about it, this is a buying opportunity.
Good luck to all.
-jsc |
