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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout!
LGND 201.02+0.4%2:13 PM EST

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To: jayhawk969 who wrote (21855)6/4/1998 10:10:00 PM
From: Henry Niman  Read Replies (1) of 32384
 
Here's what BARS had to say about the ONTAK market potential:
We believe that there are approximately 8,000 patients in the United States
with CTCL resistant to other course of therapy-- the target market for Ontak.
- We estimate that $50 million in U.S. sales is doable for this product.
- Thus, even if the penetration rate is low, we believe that Ontak
will be accretive to Ligand's earnings in 1999.
- Currently, we estimate that Ontak could sell approximately
$30-40 million in the U.S. and another $10-20 million
overseas.
- Lilly will receive a double-digit royalty from Ligand
for sales in the year 2000 and beyond.
- We believe this is a low-double digit royalty.
- Furthermore, we believe that there is significant potential for this
compound beyond CTCL, specifically in the non-Hodgkin's
lymphoma (NHL) market where the compound has demonstrated
potential.
- In a Phase I trial of 17 non-Hodgkin's lymphoma patients
treated with Ontak, two patients demonstrated a partial
response rate and one patient had a complete response.
- We estimate that the worldwide market for non-Hodgkin's
lymphoma is in excess of $250 million.
- We believe that if Ontak is approved for CTCL that Ligand
could market the product for NHL with the publication of
positive clinical results.
- If Ontak does demonstrate positive results in NHL, we
believe that this indication could drive sales to about
$100 million.
- Overall, we believe that this panel meeting validated Ligand/Seragen's approach to

treating CTCL, and we expect the drug to be FDA approved by year end 1998.
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