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Technology Stocks : Semiconductor Industry Sales Trends
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To: cbstock who wrote (34)6/5/1998 1:21:00 AM
From: Michael Sphar  Read Replies (1) of 105
 
Your post gave me a chuckle, I remember most of what you've worked through. My dad was both a tube designer and a manufacturing foreman in an old, now defunct electronics firm, before, during and after the war years. I remember his old ham station powered by ww2 reject tubes that his company made.

I think the current world calamity, may have some of its seeds in recent technological progress. Much of the cycle of tech development includes cannibalization of older tech in the process of going forward. Now much of what was hardware tech before has evolved into chip tech, and that can be easily reverse engineered and results in manufacturing wars. Then software comes along and replaces some of the hardware tech. Then software pirates come along and steal this "intelectual" property, or new software cannibalizes old software.

In the present what used to sustain and grow a world community dependent on this broad tech industry is now going through a catastrophic cannibalistic collapse. We are seeing significant downturn here in Silicon Valley, largely due to dearth of orders coming out of Asia and Japan. Its going to get uglier before it gets better. Indicator tools on the economists and analysts radar screens are not yet strongly predictive so this downturn as yet is still under appreciated. They will learn, and feel our pain.

Regards, Mike
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