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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 269.55+0.3%3:59 PM EST
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To: 16yearcycle who wrote (19935)6/5/1998 1:29:00 AM
From: Henry D  Read Replies (2) of 70976
 
Agree with many on this board about their analysis of the bottom...i remember 1996 when almost every semi equip stock traded at single digit PE....it was totally ridiculous....dirt cheap!!!

But unfortunately, I feel this slump is more fundamentally severe than 1996. in 1996 we had an oversupply of DRAM. 1998 we have an oversupply of DRAM, Asian currency crisis, President Clinton's potential impeachment, Nukes in Pakistan, Russia threatening to sell nukes unless they get IMF bailout money, anti-trust feds, etc. the list goes on and on. If anything, I dont see it impossible for us to return to single digit PE.

if all of the above bad news stabilizes or resolves the bottom opinion would be around 25-26. if several of the above events escalates at the same time, then i think 12-14 would be possible.

lets hope this sector turns around within the next few months
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