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Politics : Ask Michael Burke
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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (28829)6/5/1998 5:08:00 AM
From: PaperChase  Read Replies (1) of 132070
 
MB. Just want to get your opinion on the semi-equip sector looking forward. What event or industry changes need to happen before you would consider buying the semi capital equip companies like AMAT or Tokyo Electron? Would the movement to a 64 bit processor in PCs in the Year 2000 spur a recovery in the industry?

Some failures of fabs in S.E. Asia (which will happen) would be viewed as a positive by the forever tech bulls who might then bid up AMAT on expectation of a recovery in the dram market. However, the flip side of this is that there would be less purchasers of capital equipment going forward and hence bankruptcy and merger mania in the semi-equip group can be expected (just like banks in the 90's).

Is the recovery too far out to speculate? The reason I ask is that the rally in semi-equip companies took me by total surprise last year and even raised an eyebrow or two of the pros at Infrastructure.
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