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Technology Stocks : Etec Systems moving up
ETEC 0.1500.0%Sep 8 5:00 PM EST

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To: Eric Jorgenson who wrote (70)11/21/1996 7:30:00 PM
From: jeffbas   of 1279
 
I did listen to the conference call and was pretty impressed. They
essentially have 95-100% of the market for the smaller feature size
market. One competitor is heard to be exiting the market and the others
are 18-24 months behind. The small feature size market is where the
action is in the semi business and business is "extremely strong" and
does not march to the same drummer as the rest of the semi equipment
market.

The only negative was that the order postponed from the first to the
second quarter will likely result in a pushing along of one order for
the entire year, and into next year.

For what it is worth, my guesstimate of earnings for the year, on a fully
taxed basis follows:
Q1 - .28 actual
Q2 - .24 some operational improvement, but a lot more R&D
Q3 - .29 higher prices kick in
Q4 - .34 more volume

$1.15 for the year on a fully taxed basis, in my opinion makes the
stock reasonably cheap at this level for a company with a monopoly
position, virtually total pricing freedom, and must-have equipment.

However, the secondary affects the short term demand/supply for the
stock - and I am somewhat disturbed by all the longtime holders
deciding to cash in, as well as the insider selling.

Do you have an opinion on my comment on its monopoly-like position
and the critical importance of its product? I always thought that
this was a company that would have many fat years when the cycle
finally turned their way - what do you think?
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