Yes Syborg, let's debate here instead of your dead thread
where even your once upon a time followers are weary of you. I haven't pulled up SYBS financials in a while and was quite surprised to find that now even I could probably buy the company. Market cap now only $600M, most recent earnings -$1.63 a share. Book value $4M, sales back under $1B, ROE -30%. You are much closer to the Borg than I thought. Seen any planes overhead lately -- those excellent developers and consultants will be VERY welcome anywhere else and as soon as they smell the Borg they'll be gone. Too bad I don't have any of the old Ingres employee posts from around the time of their acquisition. You know, funny thing about the Borg (Computer Associates for anyone not familiar with the Undertaker), they don't seem to invest much in the product line after they acquire it -- something about maximizing the revenue stream from maintenance revenues and consulting, which they do VERY well. You do still have an installed base don't you? Syborg, have you seen Sybase lose to Ingres lately? Of course not. This is your fate. Oracle won't be losing any sales to you after your acquisition either.
Golly, think I'll have my IS manager invest a couple hundred grand in what was that new tool of your's called again? I'm sick of seeing good companies make bad strategic product purchase decisions by listening to the likes of you and not ALSO determining whether the software company will even be around in the same form in 24 months. I'm also sick of seeing them buy tools that don't work because some low level programmer liked the brochure or got a free sample. Gosh, what's a 'fat client', are you sure it isn't just that our 256K line to Cleveland isn't fast enough? We ought to be able to afford a faster line, after all there are 4 people in that office... (is my resume up to date?).
Now, as for your responses... I used to do this for a living, now its just for fun.
(Syborg) "PowerBuilder continues to sell well into the enterprise. Frankly there is still a large market for developing apps for the power user and not the casual user. The casual user is primarily satisfied via development using Internet technology. Here PowerSoft provides: Jaguar CTS PowerJ PowerDynamo, and PowerSite. PowerJ has won awards as the leading enterprise development tool for Java. Jaguar CTS is running circles around MTS and simply can't be touched by the Oracle application server. PowerDynamo provides dynamic HTML capabilities and is at the heart of the World Cup web site. PowerSite provides WYSIWYG dynamic HTML creation and site maintenance. Hmmm..... seems to me that the PowerSoft has ben doing their research and homework. It certainly seems to me that you ought to be doing more. So much for the crap about viable replacement."
Funny, the Sybase rep hasn't been to many of my fortune 500 Oracle sites selling these lately? Don't they sell these into sites where they don't have a presence? Gee, wonder why? Could it be because Sybase is a component part supplier rather than a prime integrator. Yes, Syborg you can have the greatest new Java thing since the bean was first grown on the Earth, but it is confined in sales to your existing turf, which by the way is shrinking in overall percentage. In that turf your prime competitor is Microsoft -- something about a browse -- let me see, it will come to me. Oracle tends to show up on UNIX platforms in higher volume OLTP internet sites -- go read the help wanted sections on any of them, CDNOW, Amazon,.... Don't see the "Sybase DBA wanted" sign there. If Sybase has done such a good job in the area of research and homework why did you post this on the SYBS thread (which is the last post on that dead thread by the way)
(Syborg - from SYBS thread) "What is needed though is effective leadership to leverage the advantages. The shareholders have effectively said that the way the board of directors is run now does not provide the desired leadership."
As for homework Syborg, I was implementing systems and running large IBM datacenters when you were in diapers. I have done more long range planning with large companies than you'll ever do. I wrote the same 'crap' about Cullinet when they tried to fake a relational database in the 80's and I'll be torturing evangelists who don't see the larger picture long after you're gone. The only crap here is that you seem to take refuge in proudly proclaiming that Sybase has finally achieved row level locking, something Oracle, Informix, Ingres and DB2 did in the late eighties. Too bad it came so late that all the major package vendors already had their Oracle, Informix and DB2 ports and had established reference bases. Kind of like a grocery store, you are competing for developers in these firms like a rackjobber competing for shelve space. As a percentage of Peoplesoft sites, how many of them would you say are on Sybase? I asked today -- there is one in my city. Nice presence in the applications marketplace. DEAD!
(Syborg) "Hmmmmm.... seems to me that ASE 11.9 does provide RLL and is performing as well as shipping. Ever hear of PSFT? ASE 11.9 is providing impressive performance numbers and is offering a very attractive alternative to other app vendors as well. Ever hear of Oracle apps release 11? First off ORCL is basically saying to the other apps vendors "continue to use of database and ignore the fact we are competing directly with you for market share." Biting the hand that feeds you.... really smart. As far as the scaling goes... ever hear of FedEx? Maybe you should talk to them about how they will eventually go out of business since their technical base is built on
SYS which doe not scale."
Now for scalability -- where was it when Sun was competing with IBM at my largest site in 1993 (350GB, 2500 concurrent users)? It used to be an automatic, if we saw Sun, we knew it would be Sybase, until one day they began losing to DB2 on AIX. Then they had to compete with DB2 on the SP2. GOSH, maybe we need a database that will run on a large SMP box was the cry. The Sybase database sure pushes those first four CPUs hard! I was at NCR in San Diego where they were trying to build a version of your code to work on a cluster. The Teradata and Oracle teams just shook their heads -- has the product come out yet? Yes, Sybase has improved its scalability, no doubt. Someday it will come with a cup holder too. Timing is everthing. Late with RLL, late with scalability -- loss of relationships, market share and mind share.
By the way, I've seen GRAPHIC examples of large Sybase installations. I love the divide and conquer strategy they used at Northwest Airlines. No wonder Sybase is able to keep its 1400 consultants busy. Imaging faking a partitioned database entirely in the application code. Way cool. Great place to do it. Was novel at the time. Go SABRE! How many of those 1,400 consultants are at Fed Ex did you say? They MUST BE geniuses to do what they are doing.
Imagine how good those talented people would feel with some ESOP value? How did yours do over the past 5 years? There is probably a play here -- when do they get issued -- big down volume those days in SYBS I'm sure. Will have to research this one.
Glad they are still getting their bonuses. Of course, if they didn't they'd be gone by noon. Too bad databases are such a religion among consultants. It takes a long time to retrain a Sybase DBA, not because they aren't competent, but because it takes months before they quit saying "but Sybase told us Oracle couldn't to that!". Haven't seen many Sybase developers lately.
(Syborg) "No SYBS does not offer apps, they provide the technology to build apps. Now as to that non-existant consulting organization.... over 1400 folks could slap you one at a time into a bloody pulp. Again do your research... it was not PowerSoft products which primarily carried SYBS through the past two years, it was consulting. Oh yeah.... SYBS professional services continues to grow in the 30-40% range annually."
No disrepect whatsoever to those 1400 VERY talented people. However, this size places you squarely in the ranks of the averge mid to large midwest consulting company -- not in the ranks of Cap Gemini, Anderson, EDS, Oracle, etc. At 1400, you aren't a blip in the grand consultancy scheme of things. Slap me, oh please. Remember I used to work at Oracle, I like the pain! You are absolutely correct about consulting carrying SYBS now that I've reviewed the numbers. That was the only research I was lacking -- that is twice I've endured your personal slight. Gosh what a tough day its been. At 1,400 consultants at an average of $250K/year, give or take if they are doing any training these days means that 1/3 of SYBS revenue is now consulting and that paltry $350M will grow to a whopping $500M next year. Should be enough to offset the decrease in software revenues for another year. Aha! The reason the Borg hasn't been here yet is that your stock is still overpriced in their eyes. They know all the consultants will leave. That leaves about $200M in new software revenues which will decline to $0 over 10 years and a 10 year revenue maintenance revenue stream of $300M or so, declining to 0 over a ten year period. If I knew what SYBS consulting and overhead expenses are I could tell you exactly when it will happen. Let's guess at some numbers -- try total expenses of $1.2B, less 4/5 of consulting revenues (gee our margins on consulting aren't the same for software - noooo) or about $400M, a back office staff and unneeded facilities ($50M), upper and upper middle management ($10M), sales force ($75M) and 2/3 of the development staff (what did you say SYBS spends on R&D these days again??) ($75M generously) -- $610M the Borg can cut immediately. Now they have a remaining $600M or so in expenses that will generate $500M first year and decline in almost a straight line thereafter, for which they will pay $600M at current valuations. Hey, not even the undertaker can afford to bury you! SHORT SYBS - no buyout in sight! Guess what else -- SYBS is too fat to cut enough to make next three quarter's estimates either.
(Syborg) "I continue to notice how many jobs SYBS continues to get from organizations after ORCL screws it up. Keep up the good work ORCL!"
Oh my, I actually have to completely agree with you on something. The consulting organization at big O has a long way to go, and has come a long way. Thank goodness they aren't perfect or I wouldn't have been able to make $350K consulting last year in/on/around their product set. You know, at their ethereal rates there is a lot of room for the rest of us, SYBS too.
(Syborg on BEAS) "A company with a looser strategy when it comes to the Internet. I worked directly with Jolt and can tell you first
hand it is a joke. Their CORBA initiative is really not much better. Then again maybe ORCL should buy BEA since they have no other way than CORBA to support Java in the middle tier. And even then, that is beta. I wonder if all those buyers or Oracle Apps 11 realize that!!!"
A bit touchy about BEAS I see. Let see, they've been around 10 quarters, exceed SYBS market capitalization by 2.2X, are trading around 600X earnings and made their numbers for the last 10 quarters.
You need a Jolt -- to reality. I'd very much like to see Oracle acquire BEAS. Refer to my posts on the BEAS thread. Too bad SYBS can't afford them. Maybe with the $150M BEAS is going to raise via bonds they could buy SYBS? (NOT!)
Relative to Oracle Financials V11 -- I hope for the sake of my clients and Oracle that the application group has been able to obtain and use a stable version of the development tools set and that it provides a robust set of transaction processing management capabilities. Likely it does not. I grew up in CICS shops. SYBS hasn't got a TP monitor, and neither does Oracle. SQL*Net isn't the answer and frankly, the middleware group throws a mean beer party, but that's about it.
CORBA, hmm, isn't this where SYBS is going too? No? I see, then what proprietary middleware will I be running in my three tier Sybase shop? Please don't tell me that these newfangled tools of Sybase rely on a proprietary middleware layer not based on CORBA or I'll actually be upset that I spent this much time replying to you.
(Syborg, again on BEAS) "Still they will not benefit from the immediate third tier introduced from the adoption of Internet technology. They simply do not have the technical capabilities to compete. They may however continue to contribute to the N-tier environement between the Internet tier and the database. The point here is that they will not be communicating directly with thin clients given their current (and projected) offerings."
Earth to Syborg, Earth to Syborg, come in Syborg -- we appear to have lost contact with Syborg Captain... BEAS may be a new company, but the folks running it aren't new to the business -- do YOUR research. I made $100K my first ride and own E tickets for the next. I'd say they are quite technical capable of competing. Morever, they are fiscally capable of competing, something Sybase will not be in three more quarters. I believe that's why most are reading this. What was it again Sybase closed at today, 7, off 3/8.
(Syborg) "Times have changed and your information is showing its age."
Funny, I don't feel misinformed. Guess the 'patient' readers of this response can decide that for themselves. Lastly,
(Syborg) "If you want to take this further perhaps we should move over to the SYBS thread. Thanks to all the others for the patience."
Thanks, but no. I prefer to remain on a thread with some life. Last post on SYBS was 5/29 and it was you talking to yourself.
Now on to the real competition, IBM.
Enjoy the Oracle/Sun announcement -- long overdue.
Fly low, sell high... |
