Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 150.28

+1.3%

11:49 AM EST

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To: William Nelson who wrote (5712)	6/6/1998 4:35:00 AM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (1) of 10921

(Taiwan etc not yet being reflected in AMAT's stock price - but getting there) William: Thanks - that was an excellent article. Much appreciated. Interestingly I think we all know that business conditions will be very poor the next few quarters. I think I have mentioned, based on the WJ comments, there might be a small pickup (mostly Logic & maybe some MPUs) late this Q4 but the real pickup will be sometime in mid-1999. However the stocks, esp. the large caps, have still been in la-la land for so long now. Finally they are trying to come down to earth a bit - but AMAT for one is still somewhere in the atmosphere ... That's why I do not think putting in a lump sum into AMAT at these levels is a good idea. But hey what do I know - the stock almost took off after last Q's earnings release and there were lots of people here who thought that was just dandy. At most one should have only 25% of their AMAT account in stock now - the rest should be in a cash account earning 5.5% - might be a better s/t return than AMAT stock! <g> I was also thinking about AMAT buying other companies - there are plenty of cheap small semi-equips around right now - they went down much faster than the big caps. So AMAT buying one of them might not mean as much as I used to believe. The large semi-equips and the small semi-equips are operating like they are in different sectors - though rationality is finally beginning to creep in. Still think the bleeding in the semi-equips is only around 45% thus far (this is a capitalization weighted number!). And as I've mentioned earlier typically these stocks would have to form a base for at least several weeks (more likely months) - so I'm not in a hurry to do any buying at this stage - besides I have the zippo liquid assets problem... <g> Shane.

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