Law, Good Questions... Not-So-Answers
JMHO, but I think Motro's done pretty well for his
first year, all things considered. He had to clear out
some folks who weren't gonna get with the program.
He had to build a war chest vis a vis the SPO.
A war chest that has been barely dented throughout
the course of this year.
We certainly are QUIET right now. The BIG DEAL
was what Motro TURNED DOWN... the NSCP alliance. It
is the NSCP Alliance, right now, more than anything else
which has given XCIT a (temporary) sheen... after shaving
about several points while the Market sorted it out. XCIT
jumps... last year... this year. SEEK plods... we get
a GREAT DEAL on WBS... etc.
What does SEEK bring to the portal war? I think
TECHNOLOGY counts... it still can be a differentiator.
Newbies want the most reliable search experience as they
start their trek across the Web. There is a synergy
that exists (and could be increased) between SEEK's main index/engine and their
server products and their eventual client offerings.
Aptex Software's "profiling" technology as used by SEEK
remains A HUGE ADVANTAGE to one of SEEK's key constituencies:
advertisers who want the best results. Others are making
strides in this direction. But, as the May Wired pointed
out, SEEK's already there... doing it. Finally, let's
say over the course of this year, SEEK's server product
becomes 20% of overall revenues... at that point, I start
taking very serious notice of its contribution. Finally,
SEEK's distributed search capabilities will make their
SERVER product--and main engine--even more valuable with
time.
But, technology ALONE? No. Not nearly enough. We need
deals, alliances, etc. DT was greeted with a yawn by
the Street for a variety of reasons: lots of folks Street-side
don't know thing one about DT or the German online market.
And, porn indictments aside, the potential (actually,
reality) is awesome. The Street also yawned because it
was an MOU... not a contract. And, so, I hear, it sits.
The contract will be THE DEAL. DT wants a presence over
here. SEEK wants a presence over there. There have got
to be discussions about equity participation, etc.
Additionally, thanks to Tom's first and Terri's later
post, we know that SEEK has something cooking in Japan.
And, "eyeballs" being the currency here, it's
obvious that when SEEK FINALLY opens its revamped
Personal Finance page... this will be a big boost in the
eyeballs game.
But, Law, this, with the exception of technological
advantages, is ALL me-too-stuff. (I don't see DT in these
terms... but right now I don't see any details... so
I'm cautious on that score).
Me-too isn't a bad game to play... especially when
you have holes in your own offering that need to be
shored up or positioned around. But, YHOO really sets
the pace and tone here. It's hard to find a chink in
Yahoo's armor. I don't think there is one. Sure, for
search, they suck. But, as a DIRECTORY, they're strong.
As a community, they're growing. And as a MARKETING
AND PUBLIC RELATIONS JUGGERNAUT... they're undeniable.
However, it should be noted that this peaceful
room is the product of a stock that's lost half its
value and a news trough between earnings that tend to
be the drivers. And all of that peace could go away
very quickly WITH JUST ONE SIGNIFICANT ANNOUNCEMENT.
Or TWO. I don't feel we're that far out of the game. And
I DO feel we've made some remarkable progress in this
past year.
In the meantime, by my count at least, about--what?--
$40 million--sits in a money market soaking up interest.
If this sounds like raw (or even cooked) boosterism, my apologies...
Best Regards,
c m
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