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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ)
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To: Sal Milani who wrote (9267)6/6/1998 1:31:00 PM
From: Sal Milani  Read Replies (1) of 23519
 
To All-- What do you think of the following algebra --
Annual revenues to VVUS = N*(1-X)*Y*Z*R where
N=Number of ED patients
X=fraction of patients who can use Viagra successfully
Y=fraction of those who cannot use Viagra who choose MUSE
Z=fraction of those who choose MUSE who are successful
R=Annual revenues to VVUS from each successful MUSE user

My estimates are: N = 10 million in US; X=.7; Y=.5; Z=.5; R=$250
or Annual rev. to VVUS = 10m * (1-.7)*.5 *.5 *250 = $188 million in US alone.
That would be pretty good if my estimates are reasonable.
What are your estimates ?? (No zero estimates please <ggg>)

Sal
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