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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: Bill Wexler who wrote (9675)6/6/1998 1:56:00 PM
From: Fernando Saldanha   of 18691
 
Bill, regarding KNIC, I have a few things to say about "Ethanol as a transportation fuel".

Brazil had for many years an extensive "alcohol program" designed to switch consumption from gasoline to alcohol. This program was initiated during the oil crisis and still today alcohol for use in automobiles is subsidized. Even at the peak of the oil crisis alcohol was not cost effective and had to be subsidized, even though Brazil could produce alcohol at low cost, from sugar cane. Alcohol produced from beets is much more expensive. At one point more than 90 percent of the cars made in Brazil were designed to use 100% alcohol as a fuel. So there were two types of pumps in gas stations: one provided 100% alcohol, and the other a mix of alcohol and gasoline, in varying proportions (about 10% alcohol).

Here are some other facts:

1) Alcohol powered cars have faster acceleration for the same engine size, but consumption is higher, in terms of kilometers per liter.

2) Engines and other parts need special coating to resist corrosion.

3) Alcohol engines are difficult to start, especially in "cold" weather. (What is "cold" weather in Brazil would be considered pleasantly warm in the Northeastern part of the U.S.) In the southernmost state of Brazil, where the weather is comparable to that of S. Carolina, there were few alcohol powered cars.

4) The fumes produced by alcohol powered cars are cleaner by some measures, but on the other hand contain more carcinogenic substances.

Given all this, I think KNIC's management may be a bit too optimistic on the future of ethanol as a transportation fuel.

Best regards.
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