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Technology Stocks : MEMC INT'L. (WFR -NYSE) The Sleeping Giant?

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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (3429)6/7/1998 2:47:00 AM
From: Carl R.  Read Replies (1) of 4697
 
Here are estimates from last March according to Dataquest for worldwide wafer consumption sorted by size:

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According to this chart (from a presentation by David Perloff of Veeco on the future of metrology), 200mm wafer starts will rise from 31.1 million in 1997 to 40.9m in 1998 (up 32%), and then to 52.8m in 1999 (up another 29%), followed by 63.7m in 2000, up another 21% and double last year. Note that 150mm wafer starts are nearly flat from 1995 to 1999, and wafers below 150mm after declining rapidly from 1995 to today are essentially flat as well. 300mm wafers are really not a factor until 2002.

Presumably the oversupply is in 200mm wafers. If demand is even remotely close to this, they should certainly be in shortage situations again by 2000. This was done at a time when semi demand for 1998 was projected to be up 6-10%, and considering that a decline is now forecast the wafer consumption projection is probably 5-10% high, but still up sharply from last year.

Carl
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