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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)
INTC 36.15-0.6%Dec 24 12:59 PM EST

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To: Paul Engel who wrote (57406)6/7/1998 6:51:00 AM
From: Mark Brophy  Read Replies (1) of 186894
 
Re: Technology gestation periods

How much headway has the ALPHA chip made since it debuted in 1992?

About as much as Microsoft made between the release of Windows 1.0 in 1985 and release 3.0 in 1991. Or, about as much as Intel made between the release of the 8080 in 1973 and the 80386 many years later (1986?). Intel considered itself a memory company when you worked for them and it took two decades to realize the microprocessor was the crown jewel.

When your technology requires third party support, the gestation period is very long. Grove has already acknowledged that fact with his projection that Merced won't be significant until 2004.

Alpha already has 5-10% of the WinNT market and higher percentage of the CPU-intensive computer graphics world.

Intel probably delayed Merced because many more apps are I/O bound (web servers, etc.) than CPU-bound (CAD and graphics).
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