here's E'Lane's post way back then:
This post from the Yahoo board came to my attention this am..thought I'd pass it on.
From Yahoo:
<<This is my understanding on the entire senario:
1)Drs in general will try the least invasive treatments first.
2)Viagra will be the first choice.
a)Probably will get good response in milder cases
b)Probably will get some response in moderate cases
c)Probably will get little or no response in severe cases
d)Pfizer's own clinical studies showed a 60-70% positive
response.
i)The placebo success rate was quite high (about 30%)
ii)The clinical trials used a criteria that the participants
were able to have intercourse a few times 30 days before
entering the trial--from this we can conclude that
Viagra's success rate will not be 60-70% across the board.
iii)From the urologists I have spoken with, they expect to
see that about 50% of the general ED population to be
significantly helped by Viagra.
3)Muse will be the second choice.
a)After Viagra it is the second least evassive method.
b)The urologists I have spoken with claim to have about a 60%
success rate using MUSE.
c)The most common problem with the use of MUSE is pain in the
penis, testicles or groin area.
i)Prostaglandins (for unknown reasons) create a dull aching
pain in some patients.
ii)Most of the pain issue can solved by using the Actis band.
By placing the band around the base of the penis before
inserting the MUSE, the prostaglandin will not diffuse
past the penis and into the testicles/groin region.
a)Some patients who use the band will still not be able to
tolerate MUSE because of penile pain.
b)The urologists I have discussed this with claim that 10
to 20% of the patients who try MUSE and the band decide
not to use MUSE because of penile pain.
c)From the info I have obtained, out of every 100 ED
patients 60 will have suitable rigid errections.
d)Of these 60 patients, about 10 will not desire to use
the product because of uncomfortable penile pain.
i)Overall this gives MUSE about a 50% success rate.
3)Needles/injections will be the last choice.
4)Pumps will be used to some degree and will probably be used by
some in conjunction with medications.
Now for the investment/financial side of the entire ED issue:
Several important questions must be asked!
1)Of the general ED population, how effective will the Pfizer PR
machine be to get impotent men off their duffs and into the
Dr's office?
2)How many MUSE clients will switch to Viagra?
i)Many will try Viagra but how many will it be effective on?
ii)How many MUSE patients will not want to use Viagra because
of the laf time invloved. (5-10minutes vs 1-2 hours?)
iii)How many MUSE patients will not even try Viagra becuase
they are on nitrates or other meds or because they do not
want to use a drug that works systemically.
3)How many 1st time ED patients will try Viagra and then for
for whatever reason (doesn't work, side effects) trys MUSE?
i)Of this group who tries MUSE what percentage will be success-
ful?
4)What type of acceptance will MUSE have internationally?
Based on all factors above, this is my rough assessment on Vivus/
ED picture:
1)Pfizer PR will increase the number of men with ED willing to
seek treatment 5 fold. From an estimated 10% to an eventual
50%.
2)Viagra will have roughly a 50% success rate across the board
including all forms of ED. This number includes individuals
who seek treatment and can't try the drug due to eg nitrate use
or are not using because of side effects etc. This number may be
generous as some individuals are simply going to prefer local treatment over systemic treatment and also may prefer a more rapidly acting method over Viagra.
2)Of the remaining 50% I estimate that since MUSE was effective overall in about 50% of men with moderate to severe organic ED that it will work satisfactory in roughly 50% of the Viagra failures. This leaves us with 25% of the general ED population using MUSE.
3)Of this 25% I will estimate that 20% will not use MUSE because of inadequate insurance thus making it cost prohibative.
This gives MUSE roughly 20% market share of the ED population.
For the sake of not giving MUSE an overly rosy number and in fact to give MUSE a worst case scenario, I will cut the number down 15%.
This gives Vivus 15% of market share in the worst case scenario.
Now we have to ask what 15% of market share is worth?
Estimates run from 10 to 30 million men in the US alone.
Lets use 10 million as the ED population (?)
Let's use a very conservative fugure and say that the average MUSE patient uses only 3 doses per month. (36 doses/year).
Average cost per dose (all stregths) $22.00 (?)
10,000,000 (men with ED in US) x .5(percentage seeking treatment)
x .15(MUSE market share) x 36 doses/year x $22.00/dose =
$594,000,000 in gross annual sales for Vivus. Add milestone payments and round off to 600,000,000.00 per year.
Now lets say that I'm a total moron and my assumptions are off be an average of 50%. ie my numbers of 5 million men seeking treatment is too high or my 15% of market share is too high or my average of 3 doses per month is too high.
We will give Vivus a worse case scenario of $300,000,00 gross sales per year on a tapped market.
This number IMO is overly conservative.
$300,000,000 gross sales in US alone ($130,000,000 in gross sales in 1997).
This number doesn't sound too bad IMO for a fairly young company.
Now I have to go.
In order to make this thread interesting and useful (please let's stop the child like posts), I would like for you folks to give some input on my numbers (too low or too high and what your idea of more realistic numbers is).
Also, can someone please calculate what net sale would be based on average overhead and then calculate the EPS based on the 2 million share buyback (30 million now instead of 32 million?)
Finally, I would like to come up with a figure for potential world market. The market will be smaller than the US percentage
wise but there are indeed many other countries out there with significant wealth. Assuming 10 million men in US with ED and a US
population of 260 million would give us a prevelence of 3.8% of the world population having ED. Lets assume that out of this 3.8% that
only 10% will eventually seek and can afford treatment. Lets use a world population of 2.2 billion people (I think this is low?).
Now not including the US population we get
2,0000,000,000 (people) x .038 (percent population with ED) x .10
(percent greater world population seeking and affording treatment)=
roughly 11,500,000 men outside of the US who will be treated for ED. Again give MUSE 15% market share and assume 36 doses a year and an average dose cost of $18.00/dose (cheaper outside US).
11,500,000 x .15 x 36 x 18 =$1.1 billion dollars of eventual MUSE sales outside the US. This does not include a progressively growing and aging population.
I hope this analysis helped.
I would like for someone to calculate net EPS based on these numbers for the world market. Lets give an eventual target date for these numbers as the year 2000.> |
