Vidikron Technologies Group (VIDIC) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Vidikron Technologies Group (VIDIC)

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To: sloan who wrote (715)	6/7/1998 5:12:00 PM
From: Gerald Thomas	Read Replies (1) of 782

this would be an analysis for anyone currently in the stock...any previous buy point would have to be showing a loss...the overwhelming majority probably are losing currently over 70%...This is in no way for anyone looking to put money into the stock...this is just a group of possibilities of what COULD happen without taking any position one way or another... Some key assumptions have to be made for people hoping to recoup losses... They are... 1.PJTV buys Vidikron 2.The DHT2 gets launched and ships within the next month or two 3.Vidikron is growing as was previously mentioned and prior financials trend continue My assumption is that Vidikron is doing approximately 20 million in sales currently per year My assumption is that DHT2 will launch within 2 months various sales rates of DHT2 could be calculated 250-300 per quarter would be breakeven based on current cost structure 600 per quarter would be a little over double their current costs and net them over 2 million per quarter ...8 million per year 1000 per quater would equal approximately 5 million over their costs per quarter and 20 million per year the question of why this launch would be better than first should be debated seperately...my personal oppinion is that since this is a REPLACEMENT to the DHT1 that that would indicate a corrective action admittedly VERY late in thew game... So assuming a best case scenerio that this version could be ramped up to certain levels then the following would kick in... 20 million Vidikron + zero units DHT2 = big loss 20 million Vidikron + 250-300 units per quarter 1000 -1200 per year = 28 million revenues per year and SLIGHT eps gain. 20 million Vidikron + 600 units per quarter 2400 units per year= 16.8 million revenues per year and 8.8 million profit DHT2 + slight gain in Vidikron = 9-10 million profit per year total revenues 36 million 20 million Vidikron + 1000 units per quarter 4000 units per year =28 million revenues per year 20 million profit per year + Vidikron slight profit = approx21-22 million profit per year... total sales 48 million per year Adding the shares... It is possible that there will be 30 -50 million shares outstanding... using the above formulas first scenerio is BIG LOSS second scenerio is breakeven third scenerio is .31 for 30 m shares /.23 for 40m shares /.19 for 50 m shares 4th scenerio is .70 for 30 m shares/ .52 / and .42 accordingly then there is the imfamous reverse split... a 10-1 reverse split would reduce the outstanding shares to 3,4,or 5 million shares... average holdings would decrease to 10% of holdings 20,000 shares would be 2,000 shares eps under above circumstances would be 3rd scenerio 3.10 per share/ 2.30 per share/1.90 per share 4th scenerio would be 7.0 / 5.20/ 4.20 per share a pe of 20 times the above would be 3rd scenerio 60$/ 47$/ 19$ 4th scenerio $140/104$/80$ It seems that some where in this mess is the future for PJTV... I would suggest that the road may be bumpy but people need to know the possibilities... ANY COMMENTS? since this is my only analysis I mull over anything that is added as I don't pretend to know what is ahead for this company...

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