>>Why is AMZN worth even what it was a year ago(about 1/4 of today's price)given the new reality of increased competition and margin pressure?<<
I'm not sure why people think that companies have to make profits to be worth something, but they don't, at least not while they're initially building their business. If AMZN WASN'T building its business, and instead raking in quick but small profits today, then the stock would indeed be worth little. But AMZN is building for the future.....a future that will bring profits that will shock the bears on this thread.
That's not to say the stock will follow earnings. I have no idea, and currently have no position in the stock. But there's little doubt that ecommerce is going to be big in the coming years. If online book sales register only 8% of all US book sales in 2000, that means an astounding $2.4 billion of book sales will occur. If AMZN has half of this, they could top $1 billion in sales......of course, this doesn't include international book sales, CD's, movies, etc.
The bears have a shortsightedness problem if you ask me. AOL has been an awesome investment over the years, but it's just starting to turn in big profits, and will continue to do so for years to come. Look out a little further.....and see what happens if AMZN remains the #1 online retailer. They don't have to beat out Barnes and Noble and Borders...they just have to keep up. The market they're playing in is enormous and growing rapidly (that is, ecommerce).
FInally, almost no one here has mentioned the fact that online book sales will actually INCREASE the pie, so to speak, as more books are bought than would be if there was no internet. Why? WEll, they're cheaper for one, and you don't have to goto the store, and they carry many books which are out of print.
And what about the baby boomers retiring? Everyone harps on how entertainment is such a good investment since all the retirees will be boating, gambling, traveling, etc. But what will they be doing when they're not? I think they'll read more.
Either way, I just wanted to inject some positive tone to this board. The bears just don't seem to get the big picture.
Acey |
