Kent,
You make several good points in your post. It seems like the
learning process never ends. Every time I think I have learned a new
wrinkle, another problem comes along to take its place. This last
one with AFLX is incredible. As I was "stewing" about it this
weekend, I decided to go back and check the Zacks earnings estimates
for this year and next year. Then I sorted the group by next year's
earnings and the result is shown in the table.
Now it is true, Zack's has not changed their earnings estimates for
this year and next year in line with the rather small reductions
that were "unofficially" put out last week. However, look where AFLX
is on the table, #1. Yet this past week AFLX lost 31 percent in
value to be in the 41st spot for weekly price performance.
Lets look at MASK. The stock price performance was #1 on the list
this week with a 16 percent gain. As shown in the table, MASK has
an estimated PE this year of 66, and 31 for next year. This ranking
is one of the worst in the table, 35th out of 38 entries (3 entries
could not be ranked due to no next year earnings estimate available).
FSII, which I still own, is very near the bottom of the table as
well.
Going back to AFLX again - I shouldn't have invested at 16, but now
that it is at 11, I should be investing. I don't have much courage
left so I probably won't. There are several investment services that
still have a $30/share target for AFLX in about a year's time. I
don't have any confidence though that the stock won't see 7 or 8
before it sees 30. It will be very interesting to see if any
official comment on earnings outlook is put out by the company this
coming week.
EST EST
06/05/98 CURRENT NEXT
CLOSE YEAR YEAR
SYMBOL COMPANY PRICE PE PE
AFLX Adflex Solutions 11.00 8 6
CMOS Credence Systems 19.75 10 8
COHU Cohu 29.50 10 8
ASYT Asyst Technologies 16.38 10 9
KLIC Kulicke & Soffa Industries 17.06 16 9
SFLX Smartflex Systems 8.38 19 9
TER Teradyne 28.44 12 10
LTXX LTX 3.69 28 10
ATMI ATMI Inc 15.06 14 10
IMSC Integrated Measurement Systems 9.44 17 11
VECO Veeco Instruments 26.88 16 11
NVLS Novellus Systems 35.88 16 11
ASEC Aseco 4.38 -21 12
CFMT CFM Technologies 9.75 -20 12
SMTL Semitool 10.63 20 12
ETEC Etec System 37.00 17 12
KLAC KLA Instruments 27.63 14 13
SVGI Silicon Valley Group 18.25 24 14
MTSN Mattson Technology 6.31 -29 14
SFAM SpeedFAM 20.13 15 14
MICN Micrion 8.63 22 15
PRIA Pri Automation 17.31 24 15
AMAT Applied Materials 29.63 19 15
DPMI Dupont Photomasks 40.88 19 16
ASMLF ASM Lithography Holdings 35.25 21 16
HELX Helix Technology 16.94 23 16
GSNX Gasonics 10.25 47 16
PLAB Photronics 24.75 20 16
EGLS Electroglas 13.56 -678 19
CYMI Cymer 18.13 50 20
FSII FSI International 11.00 367 20
IPEC Integrated Process Equipment 13.00 23 22
UTEK Ultratech Stepper 20.50 59 23
LRCX Lam Research 22.50 125 27
MASK Align-Rite International 16.50 66 31
WJ Watkins Johnson 25.56 -32 33
BRKS Brooks Automation 13.56 -57 39
WFR MEMC Electronic Materials 13.25 -9 53
TGAL Tegal 3.88 -13
NANO Nanometrics 8.63 11
PHTN Photon Dynamics 3.81 11
TOTALS 723 |
