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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ)
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To: RCMac who wrote (9293)6/7/1998 10:00:00 PM
From: g.w. barnard  Read Replies (1) of 23519
 
rc,
i have been playing around with the numbers went more conservative than you and vlad and came out with 2 bucks a share in 1999 supporting a price of 20 to 30 dollars. keep in mind these are very conservative using constant increases in cost of goods, sga, and other items. also didn't factor in the increasing rate of sales in international product. would much rather see this type of revenue as opposed to next quarter loses. believe will turn around by 4th qtr this yr.
gw

Product Revenues
US. Product 153000 24551
International Product 2957 1971
Milestone Payments 2000 1000
less writeoffs 0
Total Income Before Taxes 157957 27522

Cost Of Good Sold 74422 10482
Gross Margin 83534 17040

Operating Expenses
Reseach and development 3880 3880
Selling General and Admin 22175 17058
Other
Lawsuits, etc.
Total Operating Expenses 26055 20938
Income From Operations 57479 -3898
Interest or Other Income 0 911
Income Before Taxes 57479 -2987
Provision for Income Taxes -597 -597
Net Income 58076 -2390

Net Income/ per share
Basic 2 -0.0743968871595330739
Diluted 2 -0.0743968871595330739

Shares
Basic 32125 32125
Diluted 32125 32125


Assumptions:
10,000,000 1) 10 million men (projection of up to 30 million)
50% 2) Only 50% of men with ED seek treatment
5000000
10% 3) Vvus will get approximatily 10% of market
500000
36 3) Average dose of patient = 3/month 36/Yr.
$17 4) Average cost of dosage = $17
$612 5) Average annual revenue from dosage.
$306,000,000 6) Annual sales

153000 7) Annual sales / 2 for conservative measure

formating didn't work but the first set of number to the right of description is projection while the numbers to the right of projection are actual last qtr numbers.
gw
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