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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs
SPY 680.28-0.5%Dec 1 4:00 PM EST

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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (16436)6/8/1998 10:47:00 AM
From: Lachesis Atropos  Read Replies (1) of 68496
 
Hi Harry,

One other thing to be aware of is that some price distributions on stocks look like this:

xx
xxxx
x xxxxxx x
xxx xxxxxxxxx xxx
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

I do believe that MSFT has a similar distribution. (Notice the two bumps on the ends of the histogram) On such distributions the SD is not a valid measure. I have not looked at an Index distribution. If the stocks that make up the distribution are non-normal then it follows that the index would be non-normal, even though it may appear normal. The chaos man, "Fractal Market Analysis : Applying Chaos Theory to Investment and Economics (Wiley Finance Edition); Edgar E. Peters" has a good discussion on stock price distributions(in my opinion the book has limited value to a trader).

>Do you anticipate some more write downs and layoff in the current Q then or has the bulk of that already happened?

MCI had a major employee layoff in January, then smaller ones through to April. At a recent meeting, it was mentioned that MCI would beat Wall Street expectations and that they were already there. So I do not believe that MCI will be laying-off many more employees or at least not until WCOM gets a hold of them. The irony is that WCOM cannot hire enough employees and MCI is letting them go.

Lachesis
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