MikeM54321, here is a short answer, more when I have some time off...
>>Basically, the consensus between the five of them, was, "Let the yen weaken. It's good for
us." As you can imagine, I was very surprised to read this.<<
Mitsubishi Motors had a spokesperson on National TV last night (the Yen/Dollar rate was the top news, graphs, experts and all the works...) saying that they do not think a weak yen is good for them. He said that after the bubble and with the strengthening of the yen J companies took steps to off set the stronger currency . These measures take a long time to be implemented and now that they are, the yen is going south again... not good.
>> My question is, since you are over there, I imagine you speak the language. <<
Yes I do although I can't read it much...
>>
Do you get the feeling that
most Japanese business leaders, confidentially, want the yen to weaken further?<<
I don't have the kind of high level connections that would allow me to get that information, frankly.
All I can say is that the Japanese media for one is warning of dire consequences about the yen 's weakness and that over the last few years Japanese people have come to think of a strong currency as something good for Japan. You have to understand that this is a trend that took more than a decade to develop, going from 360 to the high of 79.something three years ago. When it went over the 100 mark, everybody started to get worried they would get priced out, it returned to 110 and they thought it was ok. So you see that it is a phenomenon that sways public opinion all the time, except that over the years, they are now in favor of a strong yen.
I personally think that the 80 level was artificial, partly overconfidence that their economy was not in such a bad shape afterall and also because of enormous political pressure from the USA (via the Big Three) to open up their markets to foreign car parts and foreign vehicles among others, which translated in Central Bank pressure on rates.
So in short, the public statements made by company officials all point out to serious concerns over the yen weakness. In private I have no clue what they may be thinking.
Ordinary Japanese though, don't see it as a good thing at all. People will curtail their trips abroad, cut back on more expensive imports and generally see it as a set back. 110 to 120 seems to be the comfort level. My feeling, after discussing it with the people around me, is that the Japanese still can't understand why this is happening to them. An important businessman friend of mine was telling me how he couldn't understand why Japan with such a good habit of saving religiously, good work ethics and such a formidable trade surplus could be in such a dire situation while the biggest nation of borrowers on earth was doing so good. Other people just can't understand at all.
As far as I am conceerned, even with garage sales prices on assets here, I don t see it as a buying opportunity yet. There has been no change of any importance and I am sure it will take some events of catastrophic proportions to force people to move. Otherwise, everybody is just looking out for their own self, politicians especially are watching their little behinds 'cause they all "inhaled", and until I see some major bankrupcies and layoffs I won't believe that anything has really changed.
sg |
