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Politics : Idea Of The Day

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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (18550)	6/9/1998 3:13:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) of 50167

I will trade taking cue from SPM and Composite. I see a good possibility to trade above 1800 on composite where one can expect a run of 40 points to 1837-40 area where composite will face the real resistance. SPM positions can be easily traded if composite stays above 1865 level a weakening of composite will bring SPM to test 1100 support once again. If 1800 is taken out on composite we may see 1840 and we will also see some strength in tech and semis ewhere 280 poses a big resistance. I will be long SOX above 262 to 280 level but I will keep an eye on composite if I see 1873 taken out I will close out my SOX positions. I will like to trade BKX on the long side and still have a feeling that Mellon becomes a target now with Wells Fargo regional move, Boston Bank and Bank of NY are also attractively placed. I will like to think that we may test 1800 and 1126 soon the reistances I see on composite and SPM. If these levels are out I would think a triple rebound off 100 days MA will ead us first to 1840 area. I am sure thatearnings will be beter than expectations. I will like to see some pre-announcements rattling this market that is the only thing that this bullish formation reverses back and breaks 1842 area to test lower suports. I am biased towards long side and will like to think that SPM on taking out 1126 should see 1180 as next target ofcourse this should only happen if 1800 on compoiste is concurrently taken out. I am looking at China it is down by 2% that will keep Hong Kong under pressure. I think that CPQ GTW LSCC VTSS XLNX HTCH are stocks to look at if these levels are taken out. I am pro-mid cap rally in summer but I will like to move in if overall movement of the market does not deviate from the course I have laid down for my intermediate trading objectives. Markets cannot be traded by emotions and feelings with what you see on the charts the most important factor is interpolation of global movements and macro-economic fundamentals on to chart and establish a bias. The key indicators and economic data with strength of economy helps clarify points on the charts where opinion is divided, like if you see S&P chart on a long term horizon we find 1100 establshing itself as key support, the movement along this line since last 30 trading session indicates a base formation but I have noticed that this base is very tricky sometime in a major move and long bull market this can also indicate a reversal or a major correction hence it is important that trading objectives and pattern should follow co-linierity with other indexes and a close eye on important global indexes like China Russia is a must too. One very positive development is strength of economy in EU, this may compensate for weakness of demand orginating from ASEA and post sanctions era in South Asia. I think growth and strong demand will help sales of PC's in EU. That would help techs to consolidate. INTC is now being hounded by FTC although it is priced in the market but one needs to keep INTC in close observation if it takes out 673/8 second time we will have problems with the stock as it can drift lower to 62-3 area or 239 area on SOX. I try to highlight warning signs as we move along what appears to be a good bounce off supports. I am cautiously bullishly and expect that 1800 resistance will be taken.

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