A person who is not in touch with the risks involved in their pursuit is IMO destined for failure. Evidently you are not a successful yet day trader otherwise you would not be posting saying your *feeling* that 1 in 30 odds are too pessimistic. How do you know when you do not know what it takes to be a good day trader and have not succeeded? You apparently have little experience to base this feeling on. I hope you do not trade on these "feelings" of yours too. Reading between the lines, I think what you actually are saying is that this is an *unfair* assessment because this means *you* many not succeed at day trading. Welcome to the real world!
Furthermore, I suggest not to expect honest and accurate information from many who post here at SI claiming to be a successful day trader. If you believe people when the proclaim themselves here to be successful and making allot of money, I have a bridge to sell you. The only way to gauge the competence of a trader on these posting boards is to follow them over a longer period of time, look at the specifics of their comments and the picks they post, and follow them through changes in the market. Interact with them and challenge their assertions. Then over time you may get a good idea as to how knowledgeable and successful they are.
I have followed in this way people like Steve, Ira, Jenna, LastShadow, Christopher Smith, and others. Believe me when I say the some of the well-known "experts" here at SI are no experts at all. Please note that I have chosen not to name those who I am thinking about when I make this last statement. They end up revealing themselves over time. Matter of fact, I daresay that many if not most portray an exaggerated view of their competency. This afflicts even those who have demonstrated skill. Some even call themselves MMs when they are obviously not. One self-proclaimed MM did not know that there are some NASDAQ stocks that make up the S&P 500 index, and he claims to be a 20 year professional MM on an exchange. Huh??? Hello??? Another talks about shorting penny stocks. This I am skeptical about, but since I have never shorted a stock, I do not know.
You apparently are a person who wants to succeed in day trading who is struggling with understanding the risks of what you have chosen to pursue. Just do not be too disappointed if you do not succeed. Over the past year, from everything I have been able to research on this topic, including talks with successful day traders that I have followed over a long period of time, the odds are substantially against you succeeding. It is as simple as that. This has nothing to do with "fairness" and anything to do with who you are as a person. There is no such word "fairness" as far as the markets are concerned. From everything that I can see, the markets can eat you alive as a day trader. If you are trading the more liquid stocks, you are trading against some of the best in the country, those who have been at this much longer than you, who have a large amount of money for their stake, and many very successful at what they do. Not being in touch with the risks involved in this pursuit would be very unfair to yourself, and definitely very foolish, for this is not a workable approach to success. And you think your electronic execution system changes everything? It is only a tool and nothing more: a tool that can get you into allot of financial trouble just as it can be used in your success. Anyone who has told you different has sold you a "bill of goods".
Just some thoughts to ponder on. Good luck.
Bob Graham |
