I am really not trying to be an arrogant SOB. I am attempting to underlining an important truth here. That beginners simply have no clue as to the risks involved with trading in the market, little alone day trading. But this should come as no surprise. The idea with a place like SI is for the beginner to take advantage of the experience of other traders. In this specific situation, there are people here like Steve that have been patiently explaining to him the risks while he has been challenging what they have been saying. What can one do for a person like this? Other than to highlight what they do not know or understand. Or let us flip this around: why is is so important for him to hear that the odds are better for day trading? An objective approach to a decision to day trade would consist of taking in and evaluating all information presented to him where there is simply no need to hear it one way or another. Wouldn't you agree? Perhaps he has already made up his mind and now is looking for evidence to support his judgement about himself and day trading which he apparently has a need to validate?
One and three odds success rate with day trading I highly disagree with. Why would you listen to a broker that has a stake in selling the idea of day trading to the individual? This is silly. IMO anyone who has been in the business of either short term trading or day trading and has been doing this successfully would have problems with this number. The fatality rate of day trading is even much higher than that of all other types of short term trading. Simply talking to the traders here that have integrity, which is admittedly a small minority, would lead to this understanding of day trading as being risky and requiring skills that are developed over time. Many would like to say that they are doing great day trading and are making a killing in the market. The truth is many people here at SI who boast of success as a trader or for that matter even their prowess in other related areas to the market like understanding the technology of a company that is being looked at as an investment are woefully lacking in honesty. This I have verified in my following of their posts here at SI. This should come as no surprise in relation to the stock market as the topic of discussion and a means of communicating this boast through the anonymity of the Internet.
So if this individual, a beginner to day trading, who we are speaking of wants to learn about trading in the market, then I am suggesting the best way to learn is to keep an open mind, get input from many sources of information, and evaluate the information and opinions given to him, and come to his own determination. This is what any intelligent adult would do in researching an interest where their is a major decision involved. The stock market should be handled no differently. What else can be done? When you go to the same "experts" who answer your questions as a beginner just to turn around and challenge what they have been willing to contribute as their opinion, with even no supporting information or knowledge to back up that challenge, this is not conducive to either their interest or the "experts" interest in the conversation. For that matter, much of this needs to be taken on the word and credibility of the person giving their opinion. There is simply no scientific evidence that can be pointed to to "support" their assertions. You must understand this.
Perhaps after a beginner has aquired more knowledge and some actual solid experience he can in the future more intelligently challenge what is being said here at SI by experienced traders and have it turn out to be a productive discussion. Otherwise it just turns out to be a game of "prove it". I do not think he will find this approach conducive to relationships, and through those relationships will actually limit his access to the information he needs to make his decision.
So am I making myself more clear? I hope this helps in communicating my position in this matter. Perhaps this next statement will help too: I do not see the stock market as the "game" many here at SI see it. I take it very, very seriously. But it can be quite interesting at the same time.
Bob Graham |
