Tulvio, Glad that I could point you to some real data.
One point regarding the column retrofitting - carbon jacketing is more expensive than steel - I think I posted on this before, but carbon will only get a small portion of this market.
I too have spent more time studying the S-3 and am now of the conclusion that ZOLT will show one more good quarter. The Hungarian acquisition actually occurred in the fourth quarter last year which means we will see one more "bad comparison" from year to year.
My opinion on ZOLT short term trading.
As I said on previous posts, I expect the institutions who bought the 2 million shares to hype this stock in the near future. Plus, we will see some totally B.S. press releases regarding use of the $60MM to build new lines. Therefore expect the stock to rise to close to $40 near or just after quarter end and then start a slow slide. Next big point will be their auditors opinion on the Hungarian operation. The CFO resignation offers forewarning IMO.
If ZOLT can survive the drop - remember that insiders own a significant amount of this stock, they may be a play late next year. Akzo is the much better play, if you could get at the carbon operation. You probably don't know, but Akzo is a 50% shareholder in Toray's carbon fiber line in Germany, so it is not out of the question for Toray to buy them out here in the US. I agree with you that carbon fiber is a definite material of the future, but my timetable is probably a little longer before significant penetration. My money would go into the following companies for this market: (in no particular order)
Akzo
Hexcel
Toray
IMO, Akzo is the leader in large tow, Toray in small tow and Hexcel is the most integrated downstream.
By the way, I really do think that it would be interesting to look at your Message 52 in about 9 months and give ol' Zsolt a call back.
Good luck.
Flyguy. |
