Dear Alomex - 1st, congratulation. Great homework. I am actually from the opposite side of the track - sad to say. I tried to catch the falling knife and ended up admitting myself to the endangered species group called "long term investors" <sg>. Having said that, I think RATL has a lot more potential than its past histories. I understand this is a risky proposition; however, I'd like to think its technologies are at the beginning of the life cycle and thus has yet to hit the sweet spot of its growth curve. I said risky because of several factors, like y2k diversion and barrier of entry etc.
Having said that, only recently my co [can't name names, but big enough] has only begun to consider clearcase. I mean, this is not java-in-a-box, so the basebuilding can be laborous. Of course, there is no assurance that RATL will get the acct. So, your [implicit] points are well given. Technologies aside, it is crucial for mgt to pay attention to the business model, to the sales force and to the [pre and post] customer supports.
I think it is difficult to compare RATL to ORCL, SAP, PSFT and BAANF because of the aforementioned points. I mean, RATL has yet to arrive at the Alpha Wolf position. But then, by the time it is there, it probably would be trading at a much higher multiples [and everyone would be screaming bloody murder how overpriced it were <g>]
Best, Bosco |
